中国与美国创新驱动经济增长的比较:基于计量经济学和DSGE方法结合  

A Comparison of Innovation-Driven Economic Growth between China and the United States:Based on the Combination of Econometric Method and DSGE Method

作　　者：姜照华[1] 李金玉[1] 李亚飞[1] JIANG Zhaohua;LI Jinyu;LI Yafei(School of Public Administration,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2025年第2期15-29,共15页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期项目(21FGLB092)。

摘　　要：基于创新驱动发展的国家重大战略和创新生态理论、协同创新理论、开放创新理论等一系列理论,以及供给侧结构改革理论、新结构经济学,丰富和发展关于创新驱动的多元动力理论。利用中国和美国的相关数据,综合运用经济计量学方法、科学计量学方法、专利计量学方法和动态随机一般均衡方法。建立美国和中国的创新驱动的模型体系,包括科学研究引领技术创新的路径模型、政府投入引领企业研发投入的路径模型、结构升级促进持续创新的路径模型、创新与投资高效结合的路径模型、开放促进创新国际化的路径模型、创新生态与金融支持协同创新的路径模型。继而构建“期望效用函数”,测算各随机变量(城市化率,工业化指数,中高端产业增加值等)对状态变量(国内专利)和各控制变量(企业研发投入、三方专利数等)的影响程度,从而确定推进创新驱动的优化路径。结果表明,美国的经济增长方式是创新驱动主导,并主要采取原始创新和集成创新的方式;而近年来中国创新驱动的路径发生了转变,高技术产品进口、按专利合作条约获得的国际专利、融资与外商直接投资、高新园区政策、风险投资、国际机构合作论文成为推动创新驱动的关键变量,这是中国科技与美国并跑和跟跑的特征。而下一个阶段,中国科技将在某些领域与美国等并跑,同时在某些领域处于领跑地位。需要进一步全面深化中国科技体制机制改革和优化创新驱动路径,着力于构建有为政府与有效市场紧密结合的科技体制机制,着力于科学研究引领技术创新,着力于创新驱动与结构转型相结合,着力于创新生态与金融支持协同创新,着力于创新与投资的高效结合,加快直接融资、风险投资和国际专利的发展,推动创新驱动路径的转变带动新质生产力的加快发展和经济结构的转型升级。Based on the national major strategy of innovation driven development and a series of theories such as innovation ecology theory,collaborative innovation theory,open innovation theory,as well as supply side structural reform theory and new structural economics,enrich and develop the theory of diversified driving forces on innovation driven development.Using relevant data from China and the United States,and comprehensively using econometric methods,scientific econometric methods,patent econometric methods,and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium methods.Establish an innovation driven model system for the United States and China,including a path model of scientific research leading technological innovation,a path model of government investment leading enterprise R&D investment,a path model of structural upgrading promoting sustained innovation,a path model of efficient combination of innovation and investment,a path model of openness promoting innovation internationalization,and a path model of collaborative innovation supported by innovation ecology and finance.Subsequently,a"expected utility function"is constructed to measure the degree of influence of various random variables(urbanization rate,industrialization index,added value of high-end industries,etc.)on the state variable(domestic patents)and various control variables(enterprise R&D investment,number of third-party patents,etc.),in order to determine the optimization path for promoting innovation driven development.The variance analysis based on the DSGE model system in the United States shows that the revolutionary development of information technology has driven the continuous growth of R&D investment,R&D personnel,and patents,and information technology is increasingly penetrating into various industries.The increase of basic research funds has led to the growth of enterprises'investment in research and development in colleges and universities,and technology market transactions guide investment in physical capital;Analysis of variance shows that the C

关 键 词：创新驱动路径 创新动力 DSGE模型 仿真预测 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济] G301[文化科学]