中国城市全要素生产率的重新估计和动态演变分析——基于共同前沿与区域生产技术异质性的视角  

The Re-evaluation and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of the Chinese City-Level Total Factor Productivity:Based on the Perspective of Meta-frontier Production Technology Heterogeneity

作　　者：韩永辉 张帆[3] 朱超玮[4] HAN Yonghui;ZHANG Fan;ZHU Chaowei(Guangdong Institute for International Strategies,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510420,China;Guangdong University of Foreign Studies Base of Guangdong Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,Guangzhou 510420,China;Research Center for China's Overseas Interests Protection,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510420,China;Department of Business Administration,University of Zurich,Zurich 8000,Switzerland)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院,广州510420 [2]广东省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心,广东外语外贸大学基地,广州510420 [3]广东外语外贸大学中国海外利益保护研究中心,广州510420 [4]苏黎世大学工商管理学院,瑞士苏黎世8000

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2025年第2期62-75,共14页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD074);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72073037);广东省自然科学基金项目(2022B1515020008);贵州哲学社会科学规划重大课题(22GZZB01);深圳市建设中国特色社会主义先行示范区研究中心课题(SFQZD2402)。

摘　　要：准确把握中国城市层面全要素生产率(total factor productivity,TFP)分布水平和动态演变,对缓解地区发展失衡、建设全国统一大市场和构建双循环新发展格局具有重要意义。基于区域生产技术异质性构建共同前沿模型,采用两期合并生产技术法构建稳定的生产技术前沿面,有效提升了城市TFP测算的一致性和稳定性。此外,进一步构建核密度估计模型和马尔可夫链模型分析城市TFP的空间分布格局、动态演进过程和内部动态性,有效解决过往文献基于数据包络分析方法的城市TFP测算中组间异质性导致的指数组间不可比问题。研究表明:(1)中国城市的全要素生产率总体呈上升趋势,且各地区的生产技术差距得到一定程度的缩小,地区发展不平衡现象有所缓解;(2)在区域分布上,东部地区城市全要素生产率相对较高,其次为中部和西部地区,东北地区城市全要素生产率有待进一步提升;(3)中国城市全要素生产率的内部动态演变是循序渐进的“拾级而上”,而非“跨越性”增长。Amidst the multifaceted impact of internal and external factors,China is undergoing significant changes in its socio-economic environment.Internationally,the geopoltical maneuvering among major powers is becoming increasingly intricate,the COVID-19 pandemic continues to oscillate,and forces of anti-globalization such as conservatism and protectionism are gaining momentum.Domestically,the demographic structure is rapidly trending towards"fewer children"and"aging",the industrial iteration and upgrade process has entered a plateau period,and the energy propelled by technological innovation remains insufficient.In response,the party and the central government have further proposed the grand objective of accelerating the construction of a national unified large market,under the strategic design of expediting the establishment of a new development pattern characterized by the domestic circulation as the mainstay and the mutual promotion of domestic and international circulations,driven by the vision of boosting the energy of technological innovation.By leveraging the economies of scale brought about by the super-large-scale market,it is possible to enhance the efficiency of various factors of production and guide the effective allocation of innovative resources.This,in turn,promotes the orderly flow and rational aggregation of innovative factors over a broader scope,effectively transitioning from factor input-driven growth to innovation-driven growth.This transition is characterized by innovation-driven,high-quality supply leading and creating new demand.However,at present,regional development disparities within China remain significant,and the imbalance in the level of technological innovation capability is notably pronounced.This article utilizes the common frontier method and the two-period production technology estimation method to construct a common frontier two-period merged total factor productivity(TFP)index based on the data of 220 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2020,using the DEA method.This ap

关 键 词：全要素生产率 高质量发展 区域发展 技术异质性 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]