城市低空场景下无人机运行对地风险量化评估  

Ground risk quantitative assessment for UAV operations in urban low-altitude scenarios

作　　者：陈艺君 余莎莎[1,3] 张学军 CHEN Yijun;YU Shasha;ZHANG Xuejun(School of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039,China;National Center of ATC Surveillance and Communication System Engineering Research,Chengdu 610039,China;Beihang University International Center for Innovation in Western China,Chengdu 610039,China;School of Electronic Information Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]西华大学航空航天学院,成都610039 [2]国家空管监视与通信系统工程技术研究中心,成都610039 [3]北航(四川)西部国际创新港科技有限公司,成都610039 [4]北京航空航天大学电子信息工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2025年第3期806-815,共10页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家空管监视与通信系统工程技术研究中心开放研究基金(w222394)。

摘　　要：为保证无人机(UAV)在城市低空安全运行,构建UAV运行的地面风险量化评估模型,提出使用考虑多因素多层次的对地风险地图,来定义与UAV相关的对地风险,量化风险程度。分析城市低空典型特征和UAV坠地事故因果链,建立多因素影响下的地面风险量化评估模型;考虑UAV的下降行为和风参数的不确定性,计算UAV坠地的影响区域概率密度函数;通过结合城市区域地图、人口密度、遮蔽效应、障碍物和禁飞区多个图层,计算每个地理参考单元的风险值,生成大区域范围的地面风险地图。基于真实算例对所建模型进行验证分析,结果表明:不同城市区域的风险分布区别明显,风险程度与人口密度分布、地表遮蔽效果、地面障碍物高度分布、城市禁飞区的划设及UAV飞行高度密切相关;UAV在运行中应用地面风险地图,有利于识别所飞越区域的风险程度,避开高风险区域,提高在城市低空运行的安全性。A ground risk assessment model for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)operation was developed in order to guarantee the safe operation of UAVs in low-altitude urban areas.It was proposed that a ground risk map that considered multi-factors and multi-levels be used to define the ground risk associated with UAVs and quantify the degree of risk to the ground from flight operations over different areas.First,the typical characteristics of urban lowaltitude and the causal chain of UAV crash-landing accidents were analyzed to establish a quantitative ground risk assessment model under the influence of multiple factors,and analyze in detail the mechanism of the influence of each factor on the ground risk.Second,to determine the chance of the danger happening at various locations,the probability density function of the impact region of a UAV crash-landing was computed while accounting for the UAV’s descending behavior and the uncertainty of the wind parameter.Then,the risk value of each geographic reference unit was calculated by combining multiple layers such as urban area map,population density,shelter effect,obstacles and no-fly zones;then the ground risk map of a large regional scale was generated,which can intuitively show the risk level of different areas of the city.Finally,the proposed method was validated and analyzed based on real examples.The findings demonstrate that there are clear differences in the risk distribution across different urban areas,and that the risk level is strongly correlated with the distribution of population density,the impact of surface shelter,the distribution of ground-level obstacle heights,the designation of the city’s no-fly zones,and the UAV’s flight height.The application of ground-based risk maps in the operation of UAVs will help to identify the level of danger of the areas flown over,avoid high-risk areas,and enhance operational safety in urban low-altitude.

关 键 词：城市低空 地面风险 多影响因素 风险评估 风险地图 运行安全 

分 类 号：V279[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] V355[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4