淮北平原土地利用时空变化与多情景模拟预测  

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land-use in Huaibei Plain and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction

作　　者：殷玉忠 刘瑞 YIN Yuzhong;LIU Rui(Anhui Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring(Anhui Geological Disaster Emergency Technical Guidance Center),Hefei 230001,China;Anhui Xinhuai Electronics Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 235000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省地质环境监测总站(安徽省地质灾害应急技术指导中心),安徽合肥230001 [2]安徽芯淮电子有限公司,安徽合肥235000

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2025年第3期66-71,共6页Geospatial Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42071085);淮北市重大科技专项资助项目(HK2021004)。

摘　　要：气候环境变化与城市高速发展威胁区域粮食安全、造成土地退化,同时成为导致土地系统问题的驱动力。利用PLUS模型探究淮北平原2000—2020年以及未来情景下土地利用时空特征和变化趋势,为淮北平原的资源可持续利用提供一定的理论支持。结果表明,淮北平原土地利用类型以耕地、建设用地为主;20年间耕地持续减少,建设用地、林地持续增加,地类间转化明显,耕地转出面积最大,主要转化为建设用地和水域。在自然发展情景下建设用地扩张效应明显,耕地持续减少;在耕地保护情境下耕地显著增加,林地大幅下降;在生态保护情景下耕地、林地保持稳定,建设用地挤占生态用地的情况有所改善。经对比,生态保护情景下淮北平原的土地利用结构更合理。Climate change and rapid urban development threaten regional food security and land degradation,and are driving forces for land system problems.We used PLUS model to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics and change trends of land-use in Huaibei Plain from 2000 to 2020 and future scenarios,which could provide some theoretical supports for the sustainable utilization of resources in Huaibei Plain.The results show that the main land-use types in Huaibei Plain are cultivated land and construction land.In the past 20 years,the cultivated land has continued to decrease,while the construction land and forest have continued to increase.The conversions between land-use types are obvious,and the area of cultivated land transferred out is the largest,which is mainly transformed into construction land and water.Under the natural development scenario,the expansion effect of construction land is obvious,and the cultivated land continues to decrease.Under the cultivated land protection scenario,cultivated land increases significantly,while forest decreases significantly.Under the ecological protection scenario,cultivated land and forest remain stable,and the situation of construction land crowding out ecological land is improved.By comparison,the land-use structure of Huaibei Plain under the ecological protection scenario is more reasonable.

关 键 词：土地利用 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 动态变化 淮北平原 

分 类 号：TU982[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]