论真实概率游戏中的效果随机性——基于中国彩票业2008年开奖数据的考察  

On Randomness of Effects in Real Games of Probability:Based on China’s Lottery Industry’s Lottery Data in 2008

作　　者：程和祥[1,2] 王善江 CHENG He-xiang;WANG Shan-jiang(Administrative Law School,Southwest University of Political Science&Law,Chongqing 401120,China;Qihui Institute of Law,Jiulongpo District,Chongqing 400000,China;Chongqing People’s Procuratorate of Yubei District,Chongqing 401120,China)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学行政法学院,重庆401120 [2]重庆九龙坡区绮惠法律研究院,重庆400000 [3]重庆市渝北区人民检察院,重庆401120

出　　处：《贵州工程应用技术学院学报》2025年第1期75-83,共9页Journal of Guizhou University Of Engineering Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“现代归纳逻辑的新发展、理论前沿与应用研究”,项目编号:15ZDB018。

摘　　要：随机性是偶然性的一种形式,是事件所表现出来的不确定性。随机数是随机性的数字表现形式,它可以分为算法产生的伪随机数、基于经典物理过程的物理随机数和量子随机数,伪随机数和物理随机数都是效果随机数。根据这种分类,可将中国博彩业中使用的号球摇奖机视为物理随机数发生器,号球摇奖机开出的一个个中奖号码即为物理随机数,也是效果随机数。对开奖数据进行分析,可以发现开奖号码并不是绝对随机,而是有一些可识别的模式或局部特征,如组三形态、号码之间的依赖性和短期趋势,等等。根据开奖号码的这些特征,依托凯利公式下注,制定占优的博彩策略,可以寻找盈利机会。As a form of chance,randomness is uncertainty manifested by events.Random numbers are the digital representation of randomness,which can be divided into pseudo-random numbers generated by algorithms,physical random numbers based on classical physical processes,and quantum random numbers.The first two are effect random numbers.According to this classification,the number ball lottery machine used in the Chinese gaming industry can be regarded as a physical random number generator,and the winning numbers drawn by the number ball lottery machine can be regarded as effect random numbers.By analyzing the lottery data,it can be found that the lottery numbers also have some recognizable patterns or local features,such as group three patterns,dependent relationship between numbers,and short-term trends.According to these characteristics of the lottery numbers,relying on The Kelly Criterion to bet and formulate a dominant gambling strategy,you can find profit opportunities.

关 键 词：随机性 随机数 效果随机性 效果随机数 

分 类 号：B81[哲学宗教—逻辑学]