德阳市碳压力时空变化研究  

Research on the spatiotemporal changes of carbon pressure in Deyang City

作　　者：邓清 罗怀良[1] 白韵琪 DENG Qing;LUO Huailiang;BAI Yunqi(School of Geography and Resource Science,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610068,China)

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学地理与资源科学学院,四川成都610068

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2025年第3期374-381,共8页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:17GBL137)。

摘　　要：明晰碳压力时空演变及其重心与经济重心迁移关系,有益于促进区域绿色发展。基于德阳市2000-2020年5期土地利用数据和社会经济数据,采用参数估算法、IPCC清单估算法、地理探测器以及重心转移模型等方法,探讨德阳市碳压力指数时空变化特征、影响因素及碳压力重心与经济重心迁移路径的关系。结果表明:①德阳市年均碳压力指数为1.14,碳安全程度偏低,碳压力指数年均增长率为15.40%,变化趋势为“低—高—低”;②德阳市碳压力指数空间格局总体为西北高,东南低,高值区主要为旌阳区、绵竹市和什邡市,其年均碳压力指数分别是1.86、1.75和1.46,碳安全程度较低;低值区主要是中江县,年均碳压力指数0.12,碳安全程度高;③经济重心向东南方向迁移,碳压力重心向西北方向集聚,表明经济发展与区域生态环境在空间演变上不一定高度关联。为实现研究区经济与环境协调发展,德阳市应因地制宜采取措施,重视该市西北部县域节能减排,关注东南部县域生态环境,实现可持续发展。Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon pressure and its relationship with the shift of economic center is beneficial for promoting regional green development.Based on the land use data and socio-economic data of Deyang City from 2000 to 2020,this paper used methods such as parameter estimation,IPCC inventory estimation,geographic detector,and center of gravity shift model to explore the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of carbon pressure index,influencing factors and the relationship between the carbon pressure center and the economic center of gravity shift path in the city.The results showed that:①In the past 20 years,the average annual carbon pressure index of Deyang City was 1.14,indicating a low level of carbon security.The average annual growth rate of the carbon pressure index was 15.40%,and the trend of change was“low-high-low”.②The overall spatial pattern of the carbon pressure index in the city was high in the northwest and low in the southeast.The high-value areas were mainly Jingyang District,Mianzhu City,and Shifang City,with an average annual carbon pressure index of 1.86,1.75 and 1.46,respectively,indicating a relatively low level of carbon security.The low value area was mainly Zhongjiang County,with an average annual carbon pressure index of 0.12 and a high degree of carbon security.③The shift of economic center towards the southeast and the concentration of carbon pressure center towards the northwest indicated that economic development and regional ecological environment were not necessarily highly correlated in spatial evolution.To achieve coordinated development of economy and environment in the research area,Deyang City should take measures tailored to local conditions,attach importance to energy conservation and emission reduction in the northwest counties of the city,pay attention to the ecological environment in the southeast counties,and achieve sustainable development.

关 键 词：能源消费 碳排放 碳汇 重心转移 德阳 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]