复合灾害情景下城市应急避难场所优化布局研究  

Shelter Location Model Under Uncertain Compound Disaster Failure Scenarios

作　　者：王威[1] 庄园园 张略淼 郭聪[1] 刘朝峰 马东辉[1] WANG Wei;ZHUANG Yuanyuan;ZHANG Lüemiao;GUO Cong;LIU Chaofeng;MA Donghui(Faculty of Architecture,Civil And Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市建设学部,北京100124 [2]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2025年第4期375-385,共11页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52278472);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8232004);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2022202119)。

摘　　要：为了解决复合灾害情景下应急避难场所选址的不确定性,通过灾后避难人口预测和道路通行能力快速评估,构建了多情景地震-暴雨典型复合灾害影响场景。在此基础上,考虑应急避难场所服务能力在多水准地震-暴雨复合灾害下受损概率影响,以加权服务质量期望最大为目标建立了不确定失效情景下应急避难场所覆盖选址模型。以石家庄市为例,通过对应急避难场所覆盖距离、服务质量要求及服务能力等参数优化计算与讨论,验证了模型和算法的可行性。分析结果表明最小临界覆盖距离产生的影响较大,因此应注意最小临界距离的确定。To address the uncertainty of emergency shelter location under compound disaster scenarios,the impact scenario of multi scenario earthquake-rainstorm compound disaster was constructed through the prediction of refuge population and rapid assessment of road traffic capacity after the disaster.Based on this,considering the impact of the service capacity of emergency shelters on the damage probability under the compound disaster of multi-level earthquake and-rainstorm,a coverage location model of emergency shelters under uncertain failure scenarios was established with the goal of maximizing the weighted service quality expectation.Taking Shijiazhuang City as a case study,the feasibility of the model and algorithm was verified by optimizing the parameters such as the coverage distance,service quality requirements and service capacity of emergency shelters.The analysis results indicate that the minimum critical coverage distance has a significant impact;therefore,attention should be paid to determing the minimum critial distance.

关 键 词：复合灾害 应急避难场所 服务能力 临界距离 优化布局 选址模型 

分 类 号：U461[机械工程—车辆工程] TP308[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]