货物出口与服务进口的联动效应:基于不完全合同的视角  

The Linkage between Goods Exports and Service Imports:A Perspective of Incomplete Contract

作　　者：周琢[1] 罗璇[2] Zhou Zhuo;Luo Xuan

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200020 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410006

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期153-166,182,共15页Journal of East China Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“美国‘去华’战略下我国供应链的韧性度研究”(项目编号:24SGC063)。

摘　　要：“耳听为虚,眼见为实”,自然人流动(Movement of Natural Persons)是服务贸易的模式四,在货物贸易的信息传递中发挥了重要的作用。由于货物贸易合同存在信息的不完全性,进口国需派遣人员到出口国对进口产品进行“事中事后”检查,所以带动了以自然人流动为载体的服务贸易。基于这样的判断,使用中国2010年至2016年自然人的国际流动数据,考察货物出口对自然人流动的影响,实证结论发现:差异化产品出口上升10%将带动8.8万人次的自然人流动,相当于增开1 500趟波音777客运入境航班。由此可见,如果地缘政治导致自然人流动持续低位运行,依赖于信息投入的产业或将出现“本土化”、“短链化”和“聚集化”的趋势。The saying“hearing is unreliable,seeing is believing”reflects the fact that the movement of natural persons(Mode 4 of trade in services)serves as a crucial channel for information flow in goods trade.Due to the incomplete information inherent in goods trade contracts,importing countries must dispatch personnel to exporting countries for“in-process and post-delivery”inspections.This drives demand for service trade in the form of the movement of natural persons.Drawing on data for international natural person flows in China from 2010 to 2016,this paper examines the impact of goods exports on the movement of natural persons.Empirical results indicate that a 10%increase in exports of differentiated products leads to an additional 88,000 inbound travelers,equivalent to about 1,500 more Boeing 777 passenger flights.The findings suggest that if geopolitical factors keep natural person flows at a persistently low level,industries reliant on information input may trend toward“localization”,“shortening of supply chains”and“clustering”.

关 键 词：货物出口 服务进口 不完全合同 信息投入品 自然人流动 国际航班 

分 类 号：D92[政治法律—法学]