长江口崇明东滩湿地演变对海平面上升的响应特征  

Response characteristics of the evolution of Chongming Dongtan wetland in the Yangtze River Estuary to sea level rise

作　　者：侯雅婷 谢卫明 苑家恒 王宪业 HOU Yating;XIE Weiming;YUAN Jiaheng;WANG Xianye(State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学河口海岸全国重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期42-54,共13页Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42276217,U2243207);上海市科委项目(22dz1202700,CMDT-JC202301);国家重点研发计划子课题(2023YFC3208504);东营市校合作项目(SXHZ-2022-02-10);崇明生态研究院野外台站基金(Z202202)。

摘　　要：使用SLAMM(Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model,海平面影响沼泽模型),通过设置不同海平面上升预测值以及湿地是否被海堤保护等情景,模拟崇明东滩湿地演变规律,同时探讨潮差、坡度与地面沉降等因素对于湿地稳定性的影响.结果表明:①崇明东滩湿地面积未来在海平面上升影响下有一定程度缩减,2020—2050年,其湿地面积保有率为0.732~0.763,此外,预计崇明东滩湿地可能最早在2039年开始进入萎缩状态;②崇明东滩修复区域的海堤在应对海平面上升的过程中,可防止修复区域发生植被演替和出现过渡盐沼植被;③潮差、坡度以及地面沉降的改变能一定程度上影响崇明东滩湿地的稳定性.若以2050年湿地稳定为目标,则潮差需达到3.0 m或者剖面的坡度在2.06‰以上.The SLAMM(Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model)is employed to simulate a wetland’s evolution by considering scenarios of sea level rise and whether the wetland is protected by seawalls.This study investigates the effects of tidal range,slope,and land subsidence on wetland stability.The findings are as follows:①Chongming Dongtan wetland will be reduced in size in future under the influence of sea level rise.From 2020 to 2050,its wetland area retention rate will be 0.732~0.763.In addition,the Chongming Dongtan wetland is expected to begin shrinking as early as 2039.②The seawall in the restored area of Chongming Dongtan wetland can prevent reverse succession and transitional salt marsh during the response to sea level rise;③The changes in tidal range,slope,and land subsidence can affect the stability of the Chongming Dongtan wetland.If the goal is to stabilize Chongming Dongtan wetland by 2050,the tidal range must reach at least 3.0 meters or the slope of the profile must be above 2.06‰.

关 键 词：海平面上升 生态修复工程 湿地面积保有率 海平面影响沼泽模型(SLAMM) 

分 类 号：P737.121[天文地球—海洋地质]