森林火灾防控能力量化评估研究——以浙江省青田县为例  

Quantitative Evaluation of Forest Fire Prevention and Control Capacity:A Case Study of Qingtian County,Zhejiang Province

作　　者：程爱林[1] 黄天来 张峰玲 陈哲 李勇 项小军 叶婷婷 童红卫 CHENG Ailin;HUANG Tianlai;ZHANG Fengling;CHEN Zhe;LI Yong;XIANG Xiaojun;YE Tingting;TONG Hongwei(Zhejiang Provincial Forest Resources Monitoring Center,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310020,China;Qingtian County Forestry Bureau,Qingtian,Zhejiang 323900,China;Qingtian Forestry Bureau,Qingtian Zhejiang 323900,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省森林资源监测中心,浙江杭州310020 [2]青田县林业局,浙江青田323900 [3]龙泉市林业局,浙江龙泉323700

出　　处：《浙江林业科技》2025年第1期119-129,共11页Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：以浙江省青田县为例,构建结果体系、智慧体系、基础设施体系、航空体系、早期处置体系和宣教体系6个二级指标和森林火灾受害率、森林火灾发生率等36个三级指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)和专家打分法确定各级指标权重,构建森林火灾防控能力评估模型。结果显示,结果体系、智慧体系、基础设施体系、航空体系、早期处置体系和宣教体系6个二级指标权重分别为0.3514、0.2324、0.1619、0.0531、0.1478、0.0534,其中结果体系指标权重最高(0.3514),智慧体系指标权重次之(0.2324),表明防火体系整体效能和现代技术应用的重要性;森林火灾控制率在结果体系指标中权重最高,凸显其在区域防火能力评价中的核心地位;智慧体系中,智能化处置平台和数字化指挥管理平台权重并列最高,显示信息技术在防火工作中的关键作用。从2020年至2024年,青田县森林防火综合体系、智慧体系、基础设施体系、航空体系、早期处置体系和宣教体系分别提高了5.35%、50.55%、50.26%、82.61%、50.70%、72.49%,森林火灾防控能力整体提高了30.45%。本研究构建的评估体系为青田县森林火灾防控能力提供了量化评估,并为类似地区制定防火策略提供了理论依据,同时为各地构建科学的森林火灾防控能力评估体系提供借鉴。Taking Qingtian County,Zhejiang Province as an example,this study constructed an evaluation model for forest fire prevention and control capability,comprising six secondary indicators(outcome system,intelligent system,infrastructure system,aviation system,early response system,and education system)and 36 tertiary indicators(including forest fire casualty rate and forest fire incidence rate).The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and expert scoring method were employed to determine the weights of indicators at all levels.Results revealed the weights of the six secondary indicators as follows:outcome system(0.3514),intelligent system(0.2324),infrastructure system(0.1619),aviation system(0.0531),early response system(0.1478),and education system(0.0534).The outcome system exhibited the highest weight(0.3514),followed by the intelligent system(0.2324),highlighting the significance of overall system efficacy and modern technological applications in fire prevention.Among the outcome system indicators,forest fire control rate held the highest weight,underscoring its pivotal role in regional fire prevention capability evaluation.In the intelligent system,the smart disposal platform and digital command management platform shared the highest weights,emphasizing the critical role of information technology in fire prevention.From 2020 to 2024,the comprehensive forest fire prevention system,intelligent system,infrastructure system,aviation system,early disposal system,and education system in Qingtian County have improved by 5.35%,50.55%,50.26%,82.61%,50.70%,and 72.49%respectively,and the overall enhancement of forest fire prevention capability by 30.45%.The evaluation framework established in this study provides a quantitative assessment tool for Qingtian County’s forest fire prevention capacity,offers theoretical support for formulating fire prevention strategies in similar regions,and serves as a reference for constructing scientific forest fire prevention capability evaluation systems nationwide.

关 键 词：森林火灾防控 评估体系 层次分析法 青田县 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]