气候变化健康风险预估中适应性评估指标和方法研究进展  

Research advances in adaptation assessment indicators and methods for climate change-related health risk projections

作　　者：梁娟 夏凡 张睿[2] 金鑫[1] 姚孝元[1] 李永红[1] LIANG Juan;XIA Fan;ZHANG Rui;JIN Xin;YAO Xiao-yuan;LI Yong-hong(National Institute of Environment Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100021,China;Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100021 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2025年第3期246-254,共9页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101201)。

摘　　要：目的采用范围综述(scoping review)梳理气候变化健康风险预估研究中的适应性评估指标和方法。方法检索了7个中英文文献数据库,检索时限为建库至2023年8月1日,纳入气候变化健康风险预估研究中考虑适应性评估的原始研究,提取并汇总研究国家(地区)、健康结局、适应性指标和方法等内容,对适应性评估指标和方法进行归纳和总结。研究遵循Scoping Review规范实施步骤,文章撰写参考PRSIMA-SCR声明。结果共纳入文献23篇,全部为原始研究性文章。适应性评估指标包括温度阈值(87%)和暴露-反应关系曲线斜率(13%);适应性评估方法分为六种,分别为温度阈值位移(48%)、斜率改变(12%)、温度阈值位移与斜率改变相结合(24%)、模拟暴露反应关系(8%)、基于历史数据量化适应(4%)、建立最小死亡温度(MMT)的预测模型(4%)。结论气候变化健康风险预估中最常用的适应性评估指标是温度阈值,最常用的评估方法是温度阈值位移。Objective To conduct a scoping review of adaptation assessment indicators and method for climate change-related health risk projection research.Methods Seven Chinese and English literature databases were searched for original research articles on climate change-related health risk projections incorporating adaptation assessment from database inception to August 1,2023.Information on study locations(countries/regions),health outcomes,and adaptation indicators and method was extracted and synthesized.The adaptation indicators and assessment method were categorized and summarized.This study was conducted according to scoping review guidelines,and was written adhering to the PRISMA-SCR statement.Results A total of 23 research articles were included,all of which were original studies.The adaptation assessment indicators included temperature threshold(87%)and exposure-response curve’s slope(13%).There were six adaptation assessment method,including temperature threshold shifts(48%),slope alterations(12%),the combination of temperature threshold shifts and slope alterations(24%),simulating exposure-response relationships(8%),adaptation quantification based on historical data(4%),and developing predictive models for the minimum mortality temperature(4%).Conclusion In climate change-related health risk projections,temperature threshold and temperature threshold shifts are the most frequently used adaptation assessment indicator and method,respectively.

关 键 词：气候变化 健康风险预估 适应性评估 指标和方法 范围综述 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]