隐性补贴下“双积分”政策对汽车供应链生产决策的影响  

The Impact on the“Dual Credit”Policy on Production Decisions in the Automobile Supply Chain under Implicit Subsidy

作　　者：赵丹 郑芳悦 唐金环 薛婉婷 ZHAO Dan;ZHENG Fangyue;TANG Jinhuan;XUE Wanting(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Manshan 243032,China;School of Economics and Management,Shenyang Aerospace University,Shenyang 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032 [2]沈阳航空航天大学经济与管理学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《安徽工业大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期209-222,共14页Journal of Anhui University of Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72204001,71702112);安徽省高校优秀青年科研项目(2023AH030035);安徽省高校优秀科研创新团队(2022AH010027);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2020D14)。

摘　　要：随着国家补贴的取消,地方补贴进入接力状态,目前我国新能源汽车政策正处在隐性补贴与“双积分”政策并行的阶段。在此背景下,研究建立由传统车企、零售商和消费者组成的4种汽车供应链决策模型,分析市场性因素和政策性因素对汽车供应链生产决策的多重影响。结果发现:与无补贴相比,隐性补贴会促使新能源汽车价格上升,但有利于新能源汽车的推广;当隐性补贴退出后,积分价格的介入可以降低新能源汽车价格,并接续隐性补贴进一步提升新能源汽车销量;在油耗未达标情景下,传统车企对补贴的依赖较高,在政策过渡阶段,传统车企实施减排有利于其平稳发展;积分价格和积分比例的增长均有利于传统车企由传统能源向新能源转型,且设定更高的积分价格比设定更高的积分比例更有利于促进新能源汽车行业的发展。在政策过渡阶段,传统车企应注重提升自身的研发能力,并积极调动需求端的购买热情;政策制定者应保持供需两侧政策的多样性和协同性,既要推动供给侧新旧动能的转换,又要拉动需求侧的消费活力。With the cancellation of national subsidies and the transition to local subsidies,China’s new energy vehicle(NEV)policies are currently in a phase where implicit subsidies and the“dual-credit”policy coexist.Against this backdrop,four decision-making models of the automotive supply chain,composed of traditional automakers,retailers,and consumers,were established to analyze the multiple impacts of market and policy factors on production decisions within the automotive supply chain.The results show that compared with no subsidies,implicit subsidies lead to an increase in the price of NEVs but facilitate their market penetration.After the withdrawal of implicit subsidies,the introduction of credit prices can reduce the prices of NEVs and further boost their sales,effectively continuing the role of implicit subsidies.In scenarios where fuel consumption standards are not met,traditional automakers exhibit a higher reliance on subsidies.During the policy transition stage,implementing emission reduction measures is beneficial for the stable development of traditional automakers.Both an increase in credit prices and credit ratios are conducive to the transition of traditional automakers from conventional energy vehicles to NEVs.Setting higher credit prices is more effective in promoting the development of the NEV industry than setting higher credit ratios.In the stage of policy transition,traditional automakers should focus on enhancing their own research and development capabilities and actively stimulate consumer demand.Policymakers should maintain diversity and coordination in both supply-side and demand-side policies,driving the transformation of old and new dynamics on the supply side while boosting consumption vitality on the demand side.

关 键 词：汽车供应链 生产决策 隐性补贴 “双积分”政策 燃油消耗量 市场性因素 新能源汽车政策 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]