长三角区域近地面PM_(2.5)与O_(3)的污染特征及预测  

Characterization and prediction of near-surface PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region

作　　者：李宇 刘旻霞[1] 管承轩 史建阳 LI Yu;LIU Minxia;GUAN Chengxuan;SHI Jianyang(School of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2025年第3期1-12,共12页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.42461008);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(No.20JR10RA089);甘肃省林业和草原科技创新与国际合作项目(No.KJCX2021005);甘肃省高校产业支撑计划项目(No.2023CYZC-21)。

摘　　要：PM_(2.5)和O_(3)是长三角区域主要的两种空气污染物,全面了解两种污染物的污染特征是治理该地区环境污染的关键.因此,本文分析了2013—2022年长三角区域近地面PM_(2.5)和O_(3)的污染特征,并利用Seasonal ARIMA(SARIMA)模型预测了两种污染物未来72个月的浓度.结果表明:①PM_(2.5)超标天数和PM_(2.5)-O_(3)复合污染天数整体趋于下降趋势,O_(3)超标天数趋于“双峰”变化趋势,PM_(2.5)-O_(3)复合污染天数易出现在春、秋两季.在2021年以前O_(3)与PM_(2.5)超标天数的比值均小于1,PM_(2.5)污染依旧占主导,随着时间的推移,该比值呈现出上升趋势,2021年以后超标天数比值大于1.相对湿度在65%~75%、风速在2.0~2.2 m·s^(-1)时更容易发生PM_(2.5)和O_(3)的复合污染.②本研究对苏州市进行聚类和潜在源贡献分析,表明远距离气团传输路径大部分来自山东省烟台市、菏泽市和河北省邯郸市以及黄海地区等,近距离气团传输路径主要来自浙江省嘉兴市、宁波市、杭州市、江苏省南通市以及东海等.由WCWT分析可知,高值区主要分布在杭州市周边及东海地区.③SARIMA模型预测未来72个月PM_(2.5)和O_(3)浓度,用MAPE对预测结果进行评估,O_(3)模型的评估结果(7.31%)优于PM_(2.5)模型的评估(12.89%),但两个模型均已满足预定的研究目标和性能要求.PM_(2.5)and O_(3)are the two main air pollutants in the Yangtze River Delta region,and a comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of these two pollutants is essential for combating environmental pollution in the region.Therefore,this paper analyzes the pollution characteristics of nearsurface PM_(2.5)and O_(3)in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2013 to 2022,and predicts the concentrations of the two pollutants for the next 72 months using the SARIMA model.The results show that:①The number of days with PM_(2.5)exceeding the standard and the number of days with PM_(2.5)-O_(3)composite pollution tends to decrease as a whole,the number of days with O_(3)exceeding the standard tends to change in the trend of“bimodal peaks”,and the number of days with PM_(2.5)-O_(3)composite pollution tends to appear in the spring and fall seasons.Prior to 2021,the ratio of O_(3)to PM_(2.5)exceedance days was less than 1,indicating that PM_(2.5)pollution remained the dominant factor.However,with the passage of time,the ratio exhibited an increasing trend,reaching a ratio of exceedance days exceeding 1 after 2021.Combined PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution is more likely to occur when the relative humidity is 65%~75%and the wind speed is 2.0~2.2 m·s^(-1).②The clustering and potential source contribution analyses of Suzhou City indicate that the majority of long-distance air mass transport paths originate from Yantai City and Heze City in Shandong Province,Handan City in Hebei Province,and the Yellow Sea region.Conversely,the short-distance air mass transport paths mainly originate from Jiaxing City,Ningbo City,Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province,and Nantong City in Jiangsu Province,with the East China Sea.The WCWT analysis indicates that the high value areas are predominantly distributed around Hangzhou and in the East China Seas.③The SARIMA model predicted PM_(2.5)and O_(3)concentrations for the next 72 months,and the prediction results were evaluated by MAPE,and the evaluation of the O_(3)model(7.31%)was better than tha

关 键 词：时空特征 PM_(2.5)-O_(3)复合污染天数 气象条件 潜在源贡献 SARIMA模型 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]