大城市早晚高峰时段交通事故影响因素及异质性分析——以郑州市为例  

Analysis on influencing factors and heterogeneity of traffic accidents during morning and evening rush hours in large cities:taking Zhengzhou as example

作　　者：乔洁[1] 曾凯凯 朱屹晨 刘永杰 赵晨[3] 刘永涛[1] 仇世侃[1] QIAO Jie;ZENG Kaikai;ZHU Yichen;LIU Yongjie;ZHAO Chen;LIU Yongtao;QIU Shikan(School of Automobile,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064,China;Chang’an Dublin International College of Transportation,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学长安都柏林国际交通学院,陕西西安710064 [3]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第3期201-208,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2501202);陕西省“两链”融合重点专项揭榜挂帅项目(2023JBGS-13);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-QN-0664);长安大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(300102223204)。

摘　　要：为分析大城市早晚高峰时段交通事故影响因素及异质性,采用郑州市2016—2020年交通事故数据,探讨早晚高峰时段交通事故的时空分布特征,应用二元逻辑回归模型,以事故结果为因变量,以天气、季节、道路横断面等17个因素为自变量,研究早晚高峰时段各因素对事故结果的影响。研究结果表明:早晚高峰交通事故在时空分布特征上存在差异,部分因素表现出异质性,具体表现为晚高峰时,机非混合道路、非机动车道、高架路段、一般弯道、能见度101~200 m、碰撞固定物、刮撞和碾压行人对死亡事故有显著影响;早高峰时,机非隔离道路、碰撞运动车辆对死亡事故有显著影响。早晚高峰时,非机动车道和非机动车驾驶员导致的事故对死亡事故影响一致,但影响程度存在差异。研究结果可为大城市有关部门制定和改善早晚高峰时段的交通事故防范措施提供参考。To investigate the influencing factors and heterogeneity of traffic accidents during the morning and evening rush hours in large cities,the traffic accident data in Zhengzhou from 2016 to 2020 was utilized to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of traffic accidents during the morning and evening rush hours.By applying the binary logistic regression model,the influence of each factor on the accident results during the morning and evening rush hours was studied with taking the accident results as the dependent variable,as well as 17 factors,including weather,season,and road cross-section,as independent variables.The results show that there are difference in the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of traffic accidents in the morning and evening rush hours,and some factors present the heterogeneity.During the evening rush hour,the mixed road of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles,non-motor vehicle lane,elevated road section,general curved road,visibility of 101~200 m,collision of fixed objects,scraping and rolling pedestrian have significant influence on the death accidents.During the morning rush hour,the separated road of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles and collision with moving vehicles significantly influence the death accidents.During the morning and evening rush hours,the accidents caused by non-motor lane and non-motor drivers have the same influence on the death accidents,but the influencing degree is different.The research results can provide reference for the relevant departments of big cities to formulate and improve the traffic accident prevention measures in the morning and evening rush hours.

关 键 词：大城市交通事故 早晚高峰 二元逻辑回归模型 事故影响因素 异质性 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]