台湾地区产业链脆弱性测度分析  

A Measurement of the Industrial Chain Vulnerability in Taiwan region

作　　者：王华[1,2] 李龙 WANG Hu;LI Long(Center for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian;Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究中心,福建厦门361005 [2]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期85-96,共12页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新时代推进祖国完全统一下的两岸规则衔接与机制对接研究”(22JJD790096)。

摘　　要：鉴于台湾地区在全球生产网络中的深度参与,源于其外部风险敬口的产业链脆弱性问题值得关注。基于供应链风险理论和投入产出模型,可以构造包含外部风险散口大小、结构以及贸易伙伴风险水平三类要素的测度指标。实际测度结果表明,台湾地区的产业链脆弱性水平相对较高,其中外部风险口大小和结构两类要素的影响要强于贸易伙伴风险水平的影响,电子和光学设备、化学品及化学制品、金属及金属制品等制造业是影响整体产业链脆弱性水平的关键产业,而中国内地对台湾地区产业链脆弱性的演化发挥着主导作用。据此判断,台湾地区的产业结构失衡潜藏着较大的安全隐患,但其通过转变贸易流向来分散外部风险的策略又因扭曲经济原则而前景不明。当下唯有正视两岸关系,不断降低两岸政经风险,才有望实质性地降低产业链脆弱性,并增进其经济稳续发展潜能。Taiwan's deep integration into the global production network necessitates a critical examination of the vulnerabilities within its industrial chain,particularly considering external risk exposure.This study employs supply chain risk theory and input-output models to develop a comprehensive measurement framework that encompasses three key elements:the degree of external risk exposure(foreign trade dependency),structural risk(foreign trade concentration),and the risk levels associated with trade partners.Empirical analysis reveals that Taiwan's industrial chain exhibits a high degree of vulnerability,with foreign trade dependency and regional concentration exerting more significant impacts than the risk levels posed by trade partners.The findings identify key industries contributing to overall vulnerability,including the manufacturing of electronic and optical equipment,chemicals and chemical products,and metals and metal products.Notably,the Chinese mainland plays a critical role in shaping Taiwan's industrial chain vulnerability,highlighting the security risks associated with Taiwan's distorted industrial structure.Furthermore,strategies aimed at mitigating external risks through altered trade directions appear uncertain,primarily due to economic distortions.To effectively reduce industrial chain vulnerability and foster sustainable economic development,Taiwan region must address cross-Strait relations and actively work to diminish political and economic risks in the region.

关 键 词：台湾地区 产业链脆弱性 全球生产网络 供应链风险理论 投入产出模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]