伊犁河流域植被覆盖时空变化趋势及驱动力  

The spatiotemporal change trends and driving forces of vegetation coverage in the Ili River Basin

作　　者：金晓亮 孙慧兰[1,2] 叶茂[1,2] 苏骅 杨涵[1] 吴芳 JIN Xiaoliang;SUN Huilan;YE Mao;SU Hua;YANG Han;WU Fang(School of Geographic Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China;Xinjiang Arid Area Lake Environment and Resources Laboratory,Urumqi 830054,China;School of Resources and Environment,Baoshan University,Baoshan 678000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [3]保山学院资源环境学院,云南保山678000

出　　处：《中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文)》2025年第2期42-55,共14页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41761004);第三次新疆综合科学考察专题(2021xjkk0406);新疆师范大学青年拔尖人才项目(XJNUQB2023-11)。

摘　　要：伊犁河流域作为中亚保存最完好的干旱半干旱区生态景观之一,其植被覆盖影响区域的生态平衡和气候变化。本文基于MODIS NDVI数据集和像元二分模型、Hurst指数和BFAST模型对2001—2022年伊犁河流域植被覆盖度(FVC)时空变化和持续性进行分析。结果得出:1)伊犁河流域近22年期间植被覆盖总体上呈波动上升趋势,平均植被覆盖度为0.18,以较低植被覆盖为主。植被分布具有很大的空间差异性,上游和中游植被覆盖度明显高于下游区域。2)BFAST模型分析表明伊犁河流域植被覆盖增加和退化分别占比47.3%和52.7%,植被退化趋势略微高于植被增长趋势;Hurst指数表明未来植被呈正向增加趋势和逆向减少趋势分别占比62.42%和16.84%。BFAST模型和Hurst指数耦合叠加17种结果分析得出植被覆盖未来趋势,总体上呈正向增加趋势(65.22%)占比大于逆向减少(15.07%)和占比19.71%的区域无法预测(不确定)。整体上未来植被呈正向增加趋势。3)基于地理探测器模型分析表明,整个流域降水和气温对植被覆盖影响最大,对于各个子区域而言,上游地区地形以河谷为主,主要影响因子为海拔高低,中游地区以气温和GDP两个因素为主,下游地区以气温和降水为主。本文研究结果对伊犁河流域生态环境平衡和未来植被变化趋势提供科学技术支持。The Ili River Basin is one of the best-preserved arid and semi-arid ecological landscapes in Central Asia,its vegetation coverage affects the regional ecological balance and climate change.Based on the MODIS NDVI dataset and the binary pixel model,the Hurst index and BFAST model are used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and persistence of the Fractional Vegetation Cover(FVC)in the Ili River Basin from 2001 to 2022.The results are as follows:1)Over the past 22 years,the vegetation coverage in the Ili River Basin has generally shown a fluctuating upward trend.The average vegetation coverage from 2001 to 2022 was 0.18,with low vegetation coverage being the main feature.The distribution of vegetation has significant spatial variability,with the vegetation coverage in the upstream and midstream areas being significantly higher than that in the downstream areas.2)The BFAST model analysis shows that the increase and degradation of vegetation coverage in the Ili River Basin accounted for 47.3%and 52.7%respectively.The trend of vegetation degradation is slightly higher than that of vegetation growth.The Hurst index indicates that the future vegetation increasing trend accounts for 62.42%while the decreasing trend accounts for 16.84%.The superposition of 17 results from the BFAST model and Hurst index analysis shows that the future trend of vegetation coverage has an increasing trend of 65.22%,which is much greater than the decreasing trend(15.07%)and the unpredictable areas of 19.71%.Overall,the future vegetation shows an increasing trend.3)Geodetector-based analyses show that precipitation,and temperature have the greatest influence on vegetation cover in the whole basin.For each sub-region,the topography of the upper reaches is dominated by river valleys,and the main influencing factor is altitude;while in the middle reaches,temperature and GDP are two dominant factors;in the lower reaches,temperature and precipitation are dominant.The results of this paper provide scientific and technical support for the ecologica

关 键 词：植被覆盖 像元二分模型 HURST指数 BFAST模型 伊犁河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]