智慧养老政策的量化评价与优化路径——基于PMC指数模型的分析  

Quantitative Evaluation and Optimization Paths of China’s Smart Elderly-care Policy—Analysis Based on PMC Index Model

作　　者：郭磊 黄春柳 王辰 GUO Lei;HUANG Chunliu;WANG Chen(School of Government,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,102488;School of Public Administration,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学政府管理学院,北京102488 [2]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期18-30,共13页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“2035年我国多层次多支柱养老保险体系发展目标与现实路径研究”(23ZDA100);北京市社科基金青年项目“积极老龄化视阈下北京市养老保障多层次联动和高质量发展研究”(23GLC054);中国社会科学院大学卓越学者项目“共同富裕背景下我国养老保障的体系优化研究”(20240004)。

摘　　要：智慧养老在推动养老服务质量升级,实现养老服务高效供给等方面发挥了重要作用。然而我国养老服务体系正面临着资源分配不均、服务类型单一等问题,如何健全完备的智慧养老政策,化解养老领域供需失衡的结构性矛盾成为当前亟需解决的现实问题。因此,本文借助文本挖掘方法,在利用ROST CM工具建立社会网络图谱、提取高频词共词的基础上,构建PMC指数模型,对国家和地方政府层面8项具有代表性的智慧养老政策进行量化分析,发现国家和地方层面智慧养老政策设计总体较为科学合理,但在政策时效性、政策内容、激励约束机制政策创新方面存在不足。今后制定智慧养老政策要注重强化政策时效、优化政策结构,拓展政策内容、促进政策创新,加强激励约束、推动多元保障。Smart elderly care plays an important role in upgrading the elderly care service quality and achieving its efficient service supply.However,various problems exist in current China’s elderly care service system,such as uneven resource allocations and simplistic service types.A realistic problem to be solved urgently concerns how to implement and perfect smart elderly care policies and resolve the imbalanced structural contradictions between supply and demand.Therefore,this paper adopts text mining methods with ROST CM tools to build a social network map,extracts high-frequency co-words and constructs a PMC index model.Then it quantitatively analyzes eight representative smart elderly care policies at both the national and local government levels.It reveals that the smart elderly care policy design is generally scientific and reasonable at the national and local levels.Major deficiencies exist in policy timeliness,policy contents,and incentive policy innovations and constraint mechanisms.Smart elderly care policy formulations should focus on policy timeliness strengthening,policy structure optimization,policy content expansion,policy innovation promotion,incentive and constraint strengthening,and finally,diversified protections.

关 键 词：智慧养老政策 数字化 PMC指数模型 智慧健康养老产业 养老服务 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F49[政治法律—中外政治制度]