财富还是负担:房价上涨对生育率的影响——基于长江经济带地级市面板数据的计量分析  

Wealth or Burden:Impacts of Housing Prices on Birth Rates—An Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-Level Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：王毅[1] 张茂源 丽娜·斯尔江 WANG Yi;ZHANG Maoyuan;SIERJIANG Lina(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu,210094)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期31-47,共17页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“财富还是负担:房价对生育率的影响研究”(202310288219Y);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“加快推进江苏省城乡融合高质量发展的理论逻辑与实现路径研究”(2023SJZD056);国家自科基金项目“空间策略互动缺失、认知行为偏差与区域城市增长控制困境研究”(42471194)。

摘　　要：本文基于长江经济带110个地级市2008—2022年的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型、差分GMM估计、中介效应模型等计量模型,实证分析房价上涨对人口生育率的影响及其机制。研究结果表明:(1)房价上涨通过挤出效应显著抑制生育率,且存在非线性特征及明显的区域异质性和收入水平异质性;(2)房价上涨通过加剧居民预算约束抑制生育意愿,在房价上涨负向影响出生率的过程中,人均可支配收入发挥着显著的中介作用;(3)生育政策调整能削弱房价上涨短期的抑制效应,但仍需注意房价上涨的累积滞后影响。为了促进人口生育率的提高,建议构建房价调控与生育政策的长效协同机制,通过稳定房地产市场、进一步完善住房保障体系及促进区域协调发展,实现人口长期均衡发展。Utilizing panel data from 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2022,this study investigates the impacts of the housing price escalation on population fertility rates and its underlying mechanisms by means of econometric methodologies,including the two-way fixed effect model,difference GMM estimator,and mediating effect model.The findings reveal that rising housing prices significantly suppress fertility rates through a crowding-out effect,exhibiting nonlinear characteristics alongside notable regional disparities and income heterogeneities.Specifically,housing price inflations exacerbate household budget constraints,thereby dampening fertility intentions.In the negative effect of rising housing prices on the birth rate,the average per capita disposable income plays a noticeably significant mediating role.While adjustments in fertility policies may attenuate the short-term inhibitory effect of housing prices,vigilance is warranted against their cumulative lagged consequences.So far as the population development is concerned,we propose a long-term coordination mechanism integrating housing market regulations and fertility incentives.This entails stabilizing real estate markets,enhancing housing security systems,and promoting coordinated regional development strategies,so as to achieve a balance long-term population growth.

关 键 词：房价上涨 生育率 差分GMM 挤出效应 长江经济带 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] F299.23