双循环格局下中国粮食进口面临的主要风险、影响与对策  

Major Risks and Countermeasures Faced by China’s Grain Imports under the Dual Circulation Pattern

作　　者：林大燕[1,2] 晋鹏淋 毛艺漩 LIN Dayan;JIN Penglin;MAO Yixuan(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu,210094;International Economy and Trade Research Center,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu,210094)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094 [2]南京理工大学国际经贸问题研究中心,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期48-57,共10页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自科基金重点项目“我国粮食供需格局演变与开放条件下的粮食安全政策研究”(71934005);国家自科基金青年项目“农村数字基础设施建设下农户生产方式转型与效率提升机制研究”(72403118);国家自科基金青年项目“共同富裕视角下土地增值收益共享质量提升研究”(42201295)。

摘　　要：粮食进口不仅可以满足日益增长的国内市场需求,而且可以缓解国内资源环境压力,为加快构建粮食安全双循环新发展格局奠定了坚实基础。然而,随着“百年未有之大变局”的持续深化,中国粮食进口面临的风险持续加剧并对粮食进口产生深刻影响。粮食进口的品种和来源高度集中,容易遭受主要来源国出口断供风险的冲击,提高了粮食进口的不稳定性;主要进口来源国基础运输设施建设严重滞后、国内港口基建不足,粮食进口面临运输中断或拥堵的风险,提升了粮食进口的不确定性;粮食进口长期缺乏定价权,价格波动风险高发,增加了粮食进口的成本。为降低粮食进口面临的风险、夯实粮食安全的“双循环”根基,建议加快实施进口多元化战略、深化农业国际合作,加强国际粮食物流合作、开辟粮食运输新通道,鼓励粮企掌握世界粮源、提高粮食贸易定价权。Grain imports not only meet the increasingly growing domestic market demands,but also alleviate domestic resource and environment pressure,laying a solid foundation for an accelerated development pattern of a new“dual circulation”food security.However,with the continuous deepening of the“unprecedented centennial major changes”,the risks faced by China’s grain imports continue to intensify,exerting profound impacts on grain imports.With highly concentrated grain import varieties and sources,they become susceptible to the risk impacts of suspended exports from major source countries,and to grain import instabilities.The severely lagging-behind and insufficient transportation and port infrastructure construction in major importing countries leads to high risks of transportation interruptions and/or grain import congestions,enhancing grain import uncertainties.The long-term lack of grain import pricing power results in high price fluctuation risks and increases grain import costs.In order to reduce the food import risks and to strengthen the“dual circulation”foundations for food security,this paper proposes to expedite the implementation of a diversified import strategy,and deepen international agricultural cooperation.It is also necessary to enhance international grain logistics cooperation,to open up new grain transportation channels,and to encourage grain enterprises to control global grain sources and enforce China’s grain trade pricing power.

关 键 词：粮食进口风险 进口多元化 国际物流合作 双循环格局 

分 类 号：F313[经济管理—产业经济] F746.11