基于决策解释结构模型的长江航行船舶事故影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Influencing Yangtze River Navigation Ship Accidents Based Upon Decision Interpretation Structure Model(DEMATEL-ISM)

作　　者：向银 谭孝晟 牟文豪 刘天云 XIANG Yin;TAN Xiaosheng;MOU Wenhao;LIU Tianyun

机构地区：[1]长江万州航道处

出　　处：《中国应急救援》2025年第2期39-43,共5页China Emergency Rescue

摘　　要：为保障长江船舶航行安全,建设“畅安优智美”的数字化长江航道,本文通过文献阅读、专家访谈等方式,从监管体系、船舶机器、环境、驾驶员方面归纳出15个影响因素。以某船舶运输公司为例进行验证,利用DEMATEL-ISM方法,得到各影响因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度、权重等指标,分析出了影响船舶航行安全的根本因素为监管体系;通过构建的多级结构模型,将船舶航行安全影响因素分为3个层级,并提出相关建议。In order to ensure the safety of ship navigation on the Yangtze River and build a smooth,safe,intelligent,and beautiful digital Yangtze River waterway,this paper summarizes 15 influencing factors from the aspects of regulatory system,ship machinery,environment and driver through literature reading and expert interviews.Taking a certain shipping company as an example for verification,the DEMATEL-ISM method is used to obtain indicators such as influence degree,affected degree,centrality,causality degree,and weight of each influencing factor,the regulatory system is analyzed as the fundamental factor affecting ship navigation safety.According to constructing a multi-level structural model,the factors affecting ship navigation safety are divided into three levels,and relevant suggestions are proposed.

关 键 词：DEMATEL-ISM(决策解释结构模型) 船舶安全 监管体系 

分 类 号：U66[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]