特朗普第二任期亚太战略初探  

A Probe into the Asia-Pacifi c Strategy Pursued by the Second Trump Administration

作　　者：牛筱萌 袁征[2] Niu Xiaomeng

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院 [2]中国社会科学院美国研究所

出　　处：《和平与发展》2025年第1期1-20,172,178-180,共24页Peace and Development

摘　　要：特朗普重返白宫后,其第二任期的亚太战略将呈现出战略延续性与动态调整性交织的特征。在延续性方面,特朗普政府将继续继承美国过往亚太战略的结构性框架:一是沿着地缘重心东移的传统路径,持续维持对“印太”地区的战略资源投入;二是坚持对华竞争范式,遏制中国崛起仍将是该战略的主基调;三是继续强化“美国优先”下的有条件盟伴关系。在动态变化方面,特朗普政府将做出三重调整:一是将西半球地缘博弈纳入战略视野;二是强化对华政策的交易性特征;三是应对区域内国家对冲策略的影响。中美关系将在这些延续与调整的背景下,步入一个更具不确定性的脆弱周期。Postdoctoral Fellow,Foreign Language and Literature,College of International Studies,National University of Defense Technology;and Yuan Zheng,Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of American Studies,CASS.After Mr.Trump returned to the White House,the Asia-Pacific strategy of his second term will be characterized by the interweaving of strategic continuity and dynamic adjustment.In terms of continuity,the second Trump administration will continue to inherit the structural framework of America’s past Asia-Pacifi c strategy:fi rst,continue to maintain strategic resource investment in the Indo-Pacific along the traditional path of pivoting to the east;second,adhere to the paradigm of competition with China,and containing China’s rise will remain the main keynote of the strategy;third,continue to strengthen the conditional alliance and partnership under the framework of“America First”.In terms of dynamic changes,the second Trump administration will make three adjustments:first,include the geopolitical game in the Western Hemisphere into its strategic vision;second,strengthen the transactional character of its China policy;third,address the influence of the hedging strategy adopted by regional countries.In the context of these continuations and adjustments,China-US relations will enter a new cycle of more uncertain institutional competition.

关 键 词：特朗普政府 亚太战略 对华政策 美国优先 中美关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]