从专守防卫到前沿制衡:试析日本“根本性强军”  

From Sole Defense to Forward Balance-An Analysis of Japan’s Efforts to“Fundamentally Strengthen the Military”,

作　　者：王旭 徐永智[2] Wang Xu

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院涉外法治与安全研究所 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所日本安全保障研究室

出　　处：《和平与发展》2025年第1期66-91,174,175,共28页Peace and Development

摘　　要：“根本性强军”是日本最新一轮安保政策调整的最主要内容,折射出日本国家安全战略出现重大转型。日本正在加速构建区域拒止体系,强化无盟伴支援下可持续作战能力,并不断深化美日同盟及“美日+”安全合作。日本决意“根本性强军”,主要源自对于“中国威胁”的错误认知。日本长期奉行重实力、轻意图的战略文化,往往“料敌从宽”地设想十年后与假想敌的实力对比以谋求占据军力优势,而当前的内政外交环境使其强军决策缺乏制衡。日本本轮“根本性强军”正在不断推进,这影响中国和地区安全,推升美国军事介入地区事务的能力与意愿,将加速美东亚安全框架嬗变并加大中日关系改善的难度。石破茂上台后释放出改善中日关系的信号,但没有回调日本国家安全战略,“根本性强军”仍在推进。该问题值得关注。Deputy Director and Associate Research Professor at Institute of Foreign-related Rule of Law and Security Studies,CICIR;and Dr.Xu Yongzhi,Head and Associate Research Professor at the Division of Japanese Security under the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies,CICIR.“Fundamentally strengthening the military”is the most important content of the current round of Japan’s security policy adjustment,reflecting a major transformation of Japan’s national security strategy.Japan is accelerating the construction of an area denial system,strengthening its capacity to sustain operations without support from allies and partners,and deepening the US-Japan alliance and“US-Japan Plus”security cooperation.Japan’s determination to“fundamentally strengthen the military”stems mainly from its misperception about“China threat”.Japan has long pursued a strategic culture of emphasizing strength over intention,and often“over-imagines”the strength of a potential enemy in ten-year’s time in order to gain military advantage,while the current domestic politics and diplomatic environment of Japan lack checks and balances on the decision-making about strengthening the military.Japan’s current round of“fundamentally strengthening the military”is constantly advancing,not only aff ecting China and regional security,but also boosting America’s ability and willingness to intervene in Taiwan affairs,which will accelerate the evolution of the US’East Asia Security Framework and make it more difficult to improve China-Japan relations.Ishiba Shigeru released a signal to improve China-Japan relations after coming to power,but did not revise Japan’s national security strategy,and the effort to“fundamentally strengthen the military”is still advancing,which deserves our close attention.

关 键 词：日本安保政策 根本性强军 美日同盟 东亚安全 成本强加 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]