中东权力格局转换:新旧交替下的动荡与重塑  

Shifting Power Structure in the Middle East:Turbulence and Realignment amid Changes

作　　者：牛新春 Niu Xinchun

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学中国阿拉伯研究院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2025年第1期122-147,176,共27页Peace and Development

基　　金：2023年度国家社会科学基金重点项目“近代以来中国与阿拉伯国家文明交往史研究”(项目编号:23AZD094)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：多年来,巴以在加沙地带的冲突一直被视为“茶壶里的风暴”,其影响相对有限。然而,2023年10月7日爆发的新一轮加沙冲突却迅速升级,扩大为涉及“七条战线”的大范围战争。其不仅波及整个中东地区,更具有全球性意义,甚至还渗透到相关国家的国内政治,引发广泛而深远的连锁反应,昭示着中东权力格局开始了新一轮的转换。在全球层面,俄罗斯影响力被削弱,美国相对影响力上升。在地区层面,伊朗及抵抗轴心遭受沉重打击,以色列、土耳其的地区影响力扩大。在国内层面,叙利亚发生政权更迭,以色列、伊朗、黎巴嫩等国内政治斗争日趋激化。新旧权力格局转换往往伴随着动荡与冲突,全球、地区和国内三个层次同时出现权力失衡,彼此交叉影响,中东形势持续紧张在所难免。Executive Director and Professor at China-Arab Research Institute,Ningxia University.For years,the Israeli-Palestinian confl ict has been viewed as a“tempest in a teapot”,with its eff ects confi ned to the two sides.However,the new round of Gaza confl ict,which broke out on October 7,2023,has quickly escalated into a large-scale war involving“seven fronts”.It not only affects the whole Middle East region,but also has a global signifi cance,and even penetrates into domestic politics of relevant countries,which has triggered a wide and far-reaching chain action,indicating that the Middle East power landscape has begun a new round of transformation.At the global level,Russia’s infl uence has weakened and America’s relative infl uence has risen.At the regional level,Iran and the resistance axis have suff ered a heavy blow,and the regional infl uence of Israel and Turkey has expanded.At the domestic level,regime change has taken place in Syria,and domestic political struggles have become intensified in Israel,Iran,and Lebanon.The transformation of the old and new power landscape is often accompanied by turbulence and confl icts,and power imbalances occur simultaneously at the global,regional and domestic levels,which are mutually aff ecting,making the situation in the Middle East inevitably become tense.

关 键 词：加沙冲突 中东格局 地区安全 代理人战争 抵抗轴心 美俄博弈 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]