滇中地区水资源承载力时空变化及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of the spatiotemporal variability and driving factors of water resource carrying capacity in central Yunnan region

作　　者：付浩东 洪亮[1,2] FU Haodong;HONG Liang(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;The Engineering Research Center of GIS Technology in Western China of Ministry of Education of China,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500 [2]西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2025年第3期8-18,共11页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：滇中地区水资源承载力的时空动态变化及其对区域可持续发展的影响,一直是影响滇中地区经济发展的重要因素。本文从社会、经济、生态三方面选取20个指标,采用熵值法确定各指标权重,构建滇中地区水资源承载力综合评价模型,进行时空变化分析,并通过因子分析识别主要驱动力因素。结果显示,2008—2018年滇中地区综合评价指数总体呈下降趋势,表明水资源承载力逐渐转好;昆明市主城区、玉溪市和楚雄彝族自治州部分县市水资源承载力超载明显,而昆明市北部和曲靖市水资源承载力适宜性较好;城市化、人均GDP等社会经济因素和森林覆盖率、年降水量等自然因素是滇中地区水资源承载力的主要驱动力;植被覆盖率、年降水量和生态用水率属于正向驱动因素,城镇化率、人均GDP、单位耗水生产量、人均有效灌溉面积和人均用水量为负向驱动因素。分析结果充分说明滇中地区需要进一步优化水资源配置、提升水资源利用效率,以实现滇中地区可持续发展。The spatiotemporal dynamics of water resource carrying capacity in the central Yunnan region and its impact on regional sustainable development have long been important factors influencing the economic development of the area.This paper selects 20 indicators from social,economic,and ecological aspects,uses the entropy method to determine the weight of each indicator,and constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for the water resource carrying capacity in central Yunnan.The paper then conducts a spatiotemporal change analysis and identifies the main driving factors through factor analysis.The results show that from 2008 to 2018,the comprehensive evaluation index of central Yunnan showed a general downward trend,indicating a gradual improvement in water resource carrying capacity.Water resource carrying capacity is significantly overloaded in the main urban areas of Kunming,Yuxi,and certain counties in Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,while the carrying capacity in the northern part of Kunming and Qujing is more suitable.Socioeconomic factors such as urbanization and per capita GDP,as well as natural factors such as forest cover and annual precipitation,are the main driving factors for water resource carrying capacity in central Yunnan.Positive driving factors include vegetation coverage,annual precipitation,and ecological water usage rate,while negative driving factors include urbanization rate,per capita GDP,water consumption per unit of production,per capita effective irrigated area,and per capita water use.The findings emphasize the need to further optimize water resource allocation and improve water use efficiency to achieve sustainable development in central Yunnan.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 综合评价模型 驱动力 因子分析 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]