基于死亡概率的老年起点年龄界定及其区域差异研究  

Research on the Definition of the Starting Age of the Older Adults and its Regional Differences Based on the Probability of Death

作　　者：吴连霞 丁金宏[1] 王显玉 李微 吴开亚 WU Lianxia;DING Jinhong;WANG Xianyu;LI Wei;WU Kaiya(Institute for Population Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Institute for Aging,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学老龄研究院,上海200062 [3]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《人口与发展》2025年第2期2-15,共14页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42371261、12171158);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2020ECNU-HLYT048、2022QKT001、2024QKT006);教育部人文社会科学基金(19YJC840032);南京市社会科学基金项目(23YB02)。

摘　　要：伴随经济、医疗和生活水平提升,人均预期寿命延长,传统固定年龄指标定义的老年已无法准确反映老龄社会状况。中国面对老龄化严峻挑战,亟需重新审视老年起点年龄。研究利用2010年和2020年人口普查数据,采用生命表和队列要素法,运用PADIS-INT软件,基于死亡概率的高中低三方案(12‰、10‰、8‰)重新估算中国老年起点年龄,预测其发展趋势。研究发现:(1)2010—2020年中国老年起点年龄提高,高中低方案分别从64、62、59岁提高到67、65、63岁。(2)中方案更合理,其中2010、2020年中国男性老年起点年龄分别为59、62岁,女性分别为64、69岁,城镇分别为64、67岁,乡村分别为60、63岁。(3)东部地区老年起点年龄高于中西部及东北地区。江浙沪、京津和琼等东部城镇老年起点年龄较高,藏新云等西部乡村老年起点年龄较低。女性老年起点年龄高于男性,男性、女性老年起点年龄均为东部地区远高于西部地区。(4)中方案预测结果显示,2100年中国全体、男性与女性老年起点年龄分别为75、73和77岁。最后,提出推行差异化柔性延迟退休政策等建议,为完善老龄政策提供科学依据。With the improvement of economy,healthcare,and living standards,the life expectancy continues to increase,rendering traditional fixed age metrics for defining older adults inadequate to accurately reflect the current state of the aging society.China faces significant challenges from population aging and urgently needs to reassess the starting age of older adults.This research uses the life table,cohort element method with PADIS-INT software to re-estimate the starting age of older adults in China based on the high,medium,and low death probabilities(12‰,10‰,8‰),and predict the development trend of the starting age of older adults in China.The results show that:(1)Between 2010 and 2020,the starting age of older adults in China has increased.Under the high,medium,and low variants,it rose from 64,62,and 59 years to 67,65,and 63 years,respectively.(2)The medium scenario is more reasonable.In 2010 and 2020,the starting age of older adults for Chinese males was 59 and 62 years,respectively;for females,it was 64 and 69 years,respectively;for urban areas,it was 64 and 67 years,respectively;and for rural areas,it was 60 and 63 years,respectively.(3)The starting age of older adults in the eastern region is higher than that in the central,western,and northeastern regions.The starting age of older adults in eastern urban areas such as Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,and Hainan is relatively high,while the starting age of older adults in western rural areas such as Xizang,Xinjiang,and Yunnan is relatively low.The starting age of female older adults is higher than that of males,and the starting age of male and female older adults is much higher in the eastern region than in the western region.(4)The medium-variant projection results show that by 2100,the starting age of older adults for the entire Chinese population,males,and females will be 75,73,and 77 years,respectively.Finally,suggestions such as implementing differentiated flexible delayed retirement policies are proposed to provide scientific basis for imp

关 键 词：死亡概率 生命表 重新估算 老年起点年龄 区域差异 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]