太湖区域航道风场订正技术研究  

Study on Wind Field Correction Technology of Taihu Regional Waterway

作　　者：陶威 陆文涛 方文信 吴彬 向华 Tao Wei;Lu Wentao;Fang Wenxin;Wu Bin;Xiang Hua(Huzhou MeteorologicalBureau,Huzhou 313000,Zhejiang,China;Changxing MeteorologicalBureau,Changxing 313100,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]湖州市气象局,浙江湖州313000 [2]长兴县气象局,浙江长兴313100

出　　处：《科技通报》2025年第3期1-6,35,共7页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金联合基金(LZJMY23D050002);气象能力提升联合研究专项(24NLTSQ008)。

摘　　要：基于精细化航道风场预报需要,应用OCF(refined multi-model objective consensus forecasting service products)预报产品数据、CLDAS-V2.0实时产品数据以及站点实况资料,通过双因子滚动MOS(model output statistics)订正方法,对OCF风场预报进行订正预报试验。结果表明:订正场风场整体预报效果均优于OCF风场预报,订正场风速预报效果:冬季>春季>夏季>秋季,内陆航道>沿湖航道>湖面航道,订正场风向预报春、夏、秋和冬季以及湖面航道、沿湖航道和内陆航道订正效果均类似。订正场的风速预报准确率整体都在0.8以上,而OCF风向预报准确率整体在0.3以下。相对于风速预报,订正场风向预报准确率整体较差但仍高于OCF风向预报。表明该方法可以一定程度上提升太湖区域航道风场预报精度,为太湖区域航道风场预报提供技术支撑。Based on the needs of refined wind-field prediction of waterway,OCF(refined multi-model objective consensus forecasting service products)forecast product data,real-time products of CLDAS-V2.0 and real-time data of Automatic Weather Station were used.The wind-field of intelligent grid forecast was used corrected by using the two-factor-rolling MOS(model output statistics)correction method.The results show the corrected wind forecast was better than the forecast of OCF.The corrected wind forecast coder were winter>summer>autumn and the inland waterway>along the waterway of lake>the lake waterway.The correction of wind direction forecasts for spring,summer,autumn,and winter,as well as the correction effects for lake level channels,along lake channels,and inland channels,are similar.The accuracy of wind-speed prediction in the correction was more than 0.8,while the accuracy of OCF was less than 0.3.Compared with the wind-speed forecast,the accuracy of the corrected wind-direction forecast was lower,but still higher than that of OCF wind-direction forecast.It shows that this method can improve the accuracy of wind field prediction in the Taihu Lake regional navigation channel to a certain extent,and provide technical support for wind field prediction in the Taihu Lake regional navigation channel.

关 键 词：航道风场释用 精细化航道格点预报 航道误差订正 太湖风场预报 

分 类 号：P456.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]