基于耦合激励模型的城市地质安全综合风险评价  

Integrated Assessment of Urban Geological Safety Risk Using the Coupled Excitation Model

作　　者：周丽玲 章笑艺 沈慧珍 张达政 鲍海君 Zhou Liling;Zhang Xiaoyi;Shen Huizhen;Zhang Dazheng;Bao Haijun(Institute of Urban Geological Survey,Zhejiang Institute of Geosciences,Hangzhou 310007,China;School of Spatial Planning and Design,Hangzhou City University,Hangzhou 310015,China;Observation and Research Station of Zhejiang Coastal City Geological Safety,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310007,China;Qiantang Institute of Geology,Hangzhou 310007,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省地质院城市地质调查研究所,杭州310007 [2]浙大城市学院国土空间规划学院,杭州310015 [3]自然资源部浙江沿海城市地质安全野外科学观测研究站,杭州310007 [4]钱塘地质研究院,杭州311203

出　　处：《科技通报》2025年第3期7-14,50,共9页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271267);浙江省自然科学基金联合基金(LHZY24A010001);浙大城市学院科研培育基金资助课题(X-202208);浙江省级基础性公益性战略性地质专项资金项目(2022007、2024009);浙江省自然资源厅2022年度科技项目(2022-65)。

摘　　要：城市地质风险事件的频发严重制约着城市的安全和发展。本文以杭州市东部地区为例,选取城市地面塌陷、地面沉降和岩溶塌陷3种典型城市地质风险事件,建立耦合激励机制下的城市地质安全综合风险评价模型。结果表明杭州市地质安全综合风险呈现由中心向外围逐渐降低的空间特征,高中低风险区面积占比依次减小。高风险区分为地表塌陷为主型、岩溶塌陷为主型和沉降-地表沉降3种耦合类型,可在此基础上有针对性地采取预防措施、规划开发和资源配置。The frequent occurrence of urban geological risk events seriously restricts the security and development of cities.Taking the eastern area of Hangzhou as an example,this paper selected three typical urban geological risk events of urban ground subsidence,ground subsidence and karst collapse,and established a comprehensive risk assessment model of urban geological safety under the coupling incentive mechanism.The results show that the comprehensive risk of geological safety in Hangzhou gradually decreases from the center to the periphery,and the proportion of high,middle and low risk areas decreases successively.The high risk can be divided into three coupling types:surface collapse,karst collapse and subsidence.On this basis,preventive measures,planning and development and resource allocation can be taken.

关 键 词：地质灾害 风险区划 地面塌陷 城市韧性 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]