长期护理保险在应对人口老龄化中的福利效应与挑战——基于CHARLS数据的经验证据  

The Benefit Effects and Challenges of Long-Term Care Insurance in Responding to Population Aging:Empirical Evidence Based on CHARLS Data

作　　者：王兆萍[1] 余乐山 WANG Zhao-ping;YU Le-shan

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院

出　　处：《北京社会科学》2025年第3期61-75,共15页Social Sciences of Beijing

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY086)——新就业形态下城市劳动力工作时间配置研究:行为决策、福利效应与实践向度。

摘　　要：以长期护理保险试点政策作为准自然实验,利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,采用双重差分法评估了长期护理保险试点对地区居民福利效应的影响。结果显示:长期护理保险主要通过减少向下代际支持和促进家庭消费来减轻试点城市的家庭医疗负担,进而提升个体自评健康和心理健康水平;长期护理保险制度暂未带来整体性福利效应,这源于城乡差异、保险覆盖模式、年龄结构、政策时长等因素。同时,采用宏观数据检验了长期护理保险政策在整个社会层面产生的正外部性,具体体现在收入效应、消费效应和就业效应等方面。因此,应加快建立长期护理保险制度步伐;促进非正式照料向正式照料的转化;注重打造完善的健康管理体系,差异化实施长护险政策以最大化福利效应;扩大长期护理保险覆盖面,确保政策公平性和有效性;加强各领域协同配合,发挥长期护理保险在社会层面的正外部性。Utilizing the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)data and employing the difference-in-differences method,this study evaluates the welfare effects of the long-term care insurance pilot policy on residents in the region.The results show that long-term care insurance mainly alleviates the medical burden on families in pilot cities by reducing downward intergenerational support and promoting household consumption,thereby improving individuals self-rated health and psychological well-being.However,the long-term care insurance system has not yet brought about overall welfare effects,which can be attributed to factors such as urban-rural disparities,insurance coverage models,age structures,and policy duration.At the same time,macro data were used to test the positive externalities generated by the long-term care insurance policy at the level of the whole society,specifically in terms of income effects,consumption effects and employment effects.Therefore,the pace of establishing a long-term care insurance system should be accelerated;the transformation of informal care into formal care should be promoted;emphasis should be placed on creating a sound health management system and differentiating long-term care insurance policies to maximize welfare effects;the coverage of long-term care insurance should be expanded to ensure the fairness and effectiveness of the policy;and synergies in various fields should be strengthened to give full play to the positive externalities of long-term care insurance at the social level.

关 键 词：老龄化 长期护理保险 福利 健康 养老 

分 类 号：F0[经济管理—政治经济学]