家庭代际居住分离、自理能力与农村养老困境——基于2013—2018年千村调查数据的实证分析  

Intergenerational Residential Separation,Self-Care Ability,and the Dilemmas of Rural Elderly Care:An Empirical Analysis Based on Data From the 2013-2018 Thousand Villages Survey

作　　者：康姣姣 吴方卫[2] KANG Jiao-jiao;WU Fang-wei

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院 [2]上海财经大学城乡发展研究院

出　　处：《北京社会科学》2025年第3期114-128,共15页Social Sciences of Beijing

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(24YJCZH123)——劳动力流动、代际居住分离与农村养老服务整合研究。

摘　　要：发展农村养老服务事关亿万农村老年人的幸福生活。从农村养老服务供需的视角,系统审视了劳动力持续外流背景下中国农村养老服务供需变化及其所引发的养老困境,并利用2013—2018年千村调研数据进行实证检验。研究发现:第一,代际居住分离趋势越来越明显,这种趋势使得农村以成年子女供给为表征的家庭养老服务供给减少,传统养老服务供需平衡被解构;第二,随着劳动力外流的持续推进,农村老龄化和老人规模扩大,养老服务需求持续增加,在老人进入自理能力较差阶段时,陷入养老困境的可能性提高;第三,农村的社会(政府)养老服务也是供给的一部分,但其并不丰裕,并未形成家庭养老服务供给缺失时的有效补充。进一步讨论发现,代际居住分离造成的养老困境,在男性较多、医疗可及性较低的地区更为突出;盆地和东部地区由于地势平坦、社会养老资源相对较为丰裕的原因,养老困境相对较小。The development of rural elderly care services is integral to ensuring the well-being of millions of elderly individuals in rural areas.From the perspective of the supply and demand of rural elderly care services,this study systematically examines the changes in supply and demand under the backdrop of continued labor outflows in China and the resulting challenges in elderly care.Employing empirical data from the 2013—2018 Thousand Villages Survey,the findings are revealed as follows:First,the trend of intergenerational residential separation has become increasingly pronounced,reducing the availability of family-based elderly care traditionally provided by adult children.This shift has disrupted the balance between the supply and demand of conventional elderly care services.Second,as labor migration accelerates,rural areas are witnessing a rise in both the aging population and the number of elderly individuals.Consequently,the demand for elderly care services is growing,particularly as older adults reach stages of diminished self-care ability,significantly heightening their risk of facing elderly care challenges.Third,while social(government-provided)elderly care services constitute a part of the supply,they remain insufficient and fail to serve as an effective supplement when family-based elderly care is lacking.Further analysis reveals that the challenges stemming from intergenerational residential separation are more acute in regions with a higher proportion of males and lower healthcare accessibility.In contrast,areas such as basins and the eastern regions,characterized by flat terrain and relatively abundant social elderly care resources,experience less severe challenges in elderly care.

关 键 词：居住分离 自理能力 服务供需 养老困境 农村养老服务 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济] F063.4[社会学] C913.6