Dynamic Reliability Assessment Approach for Deepwater Subsea Wellhead Systems via Hybrid Bayesian Networks  

作　　者：LI Jia-yi CHANG Yuan-jiang LIU Xiu-quan XU Liang-bin CHEN Guo-ming 

机构地区：[1]School of Mechanical and Energy Engineering,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China [2]Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology(COEST),China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,China [3]Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519080,China

出　　处：《China Ocean Engineering》2025年第1期100-110,共11页中国海洋工程(英文版)

基　　金：financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52071337);the Research Initiation Funds of Zhejiang University of Science and Technology(Grant No.F701102N06);the High-tech Ship Research Projects Sponsored by MIIT(Grant No.CBG2N21-4-2-5);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC2806300);the Marine Economy Development(Six Marine Industries)Special Foundation of the Department of Natural Resources of Guangdong Province(Grant No.GDNRC[2023]50).

摘　　要：The deepwater subsea wellhead(SW)system is the foundation for the construction of oil and gas wells and the crucial channel for operation.During riser connection operation,the SW system is subjected to cyclic dynamic loads which cause fatigue damage to the SW system,and continuously accumulated fatigue damage leads to fatigue failure of the SW system,rupture,and even blowout accidents.This paper proposes a hybrid Bayesian network(HBN)-based dynamic reliability assessment approach for deepwater SW systems during their service life.In the proposed approach,the relationship between the accumulation of fatigue damage and the fatigue failure probability of the SW system is predicted,only considering normal conditions.The HBN model,which includes the accumulation of fatigue damage under normal conditions and the other factors affecting the fatigue of the SW system,is subsequently developed.When predictive and diagnostic analysis techniques are adopted,the dynamic reliability of the SW system is achieved,and the most influential factors are determined.Finally,corresponding safety control measures are proposed to improve the reliability of the SW system effectively.The results illustrate that the fatigue failure speed increases rapidly when the accumulation fatigue damage is larger than 0.45 under normal conditions and that the reliability of the SW system is larger than 94%within the design life.

关 键 词：deepwater subsea wellhead system RELIABILITY accumulation fatigue damage hybrid Bayesian network 

分 类 号：TG1[金属学及工艺—金属学]