2024-2025年中国煤炭产业经济形势研究报告  

Research report on the economic situation of China’s coal industry from 2024 to 2025

作　　者：中矿(北京)煤炭产业景气指数研究课题组 宋梅[2] Research Group of Zhongkuang(Beijing)Coal Industry Prosperity Index(Beijing Green Energy Coal Economic Research Foundation,Haidian,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京绿能煤炭经济研究基金会,北京市海淀区100083 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2025年第2期1-12,共12页China Coal

摘　　要：煤炭产业景气指数能够准确反映煤炭产业经济形势,对国内煤炭市场相关政策的制定和保障国家能源安全具有重要意义。运用自主开发的中国煤炭产业景气指数模型,对2024年度我国煤炭产业景气指数进行了系统研究。结果表明:在国家宏观调控政策和煤炭产业政策的指引下,煤炭企业在一定程度上调整了产能和供应策略,煤炭市场总体供给略大于需求,价格同比有所下降,中矿(北京)煤炭产业景气指数呈现出“小幅上升回升下降小幅下降”的波动态势,整体呈小幅上升趋势。从宏观经济、煤炭需求、煤炭供应方面对2024年煤炭产业运行情况进行了分析,并对2025年煤炭经济发展预期进行了展望。受经济增速趋缓、新能源电力比例继续上升、煤炭产能释放等影响,煤炭供需预计仍将呈现供给略大于需求的态势,煤炭产业面临较大下行压力。基于此,提出完善煤炭产能弹性管理、积极融入“双循环”发展格局、推进低碳化技术应用等措施和建议,从而稳定煤炭市场的有效需求,并积极推动煤炭产业新质生产力管理体系构建,进一步提高煤炭产业发展韧性。The coal industry prosperity index can accurately reflect the economic situation of the coal industry,which is of great significance for formulating policies related to the domestic coal market and ensuring national energy security.A systematic study on the coal industry prosperity index for the year 2024 is conducted by the independently developed China Coal Industry Prosperity Index model.The results show that under the guidance of national macro-control policies and coal industry policies,coal enterprises has adjusted their production capacity and supply strategies to a certain extent;the overall supply of the coal market slightly exceeds the demand,and coal prices has decreased compared to the previous year;Zhongkuang(Beijing)Coal Industry Prosperity Index shows a fluctuating trend of“slight increase,rebound,decline,slight decline”and an overall trend of slight rise.The operation of the coal industry in 2024 is analyzed from the perspectives of macroeconomics,coal demand and supply,and an outlook is given for the development of the coal economy in 2025.The coal supply and demand are expected to slightly exceed demand due to the increasing challenges of national economic development,the continued increase in the proportion of new energy power,and the release of coal production capacity,and the coal industry will face greater downward pressure.On the basis,measures and suggestions are proposed to improve the flexible management of coal production capacity,actively integrate into the“double-cycle”development pattern,and promote the application of low-carbon technologies,so as to stabilize the effective demand of the coal market and actively promote the construction of a new quality productivity management system for the coal industry,further improving the resilience of the coal industry's development.

关 键 词：煤炭产业经济形势 中矿(北京)煤炭产业景气指数 产业景气度 煤炭产业运行分析 新质生产力 产业管理体系 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程]