基于改进博弈论—二维云模型的高海拔铁路隧道施工风险预警  

High Altitude Railway Construction Risk Warning Based on Improved Game Theory-2d Cloud Model

作　　者：谢斌[1] 刘岩[2] 崔利兵 XIE Bin;LIU Yan;CUI Libing(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Building Engineering College,Gansu Forestry Technological College,Tianshui 741020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃林业职业技术学院建筑工程学院,甘肃天水741020

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2025年第2期144-152,共9页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：天津大学-兰州交通大学自主创新基金项目(2022068)。

摘　　要：为实现高海拔铁路隧道施工风险预警评估,提出一种基于改进博弈论—二维云的施工风险预警模型。首先,基于一般环境铁路隧道施工风险因素分析,结合风险感知和社会风险放大效应理论,综合考虑高海拔铁路隧道施工风险的复杂性,从基本风险和放大风险2个角度构建6个一级指标和29个二级指标的高海拔铁路隧道施工风险预警指标体系,并证明了指标可靠性。然后,运用改进博弈论—组合赋权方法计算所有指标的组合权重,通过剖析国内外铁路隧道施工风险评估方法的研究现状,以风险概率和危害程度为基础变量构建高海拔铁路隧道施工风险预警的二维云模型,利用MATLAB绘制二维云图形象地反映风险等级,并进一步计算贴近度确定准确的风险等级。最后,以色季拉山隧道施工建设为例,验证改进博弈论—二维云在高海拔铁路隧道施工风险预警中的适用性。研究结果表明,色季拉山隧道风险预警等级为“Ⅰ级”,风险概率高且危害程度大,需重点加强人员、环境和组织复杂性方面的管理,对预防高海拔铁路隧道施工风险发生具有重要作用。To achieve risk warning assessment for high-altitude railway tunnel construction,a construction risk warning model based on improved game theory and two-dimensional cloud model is proposed.Firstly,an analysis of risk factors in general environments for railway tunnel construction is conducted,combined with risk perception and social risk amplification theory,and comprehensively considering the complexity of construction risks for high-altitude railway tunnels.From the perspectives of basic risks(personnel risk,material and equipment risk,technical risk,and environmental risk)and amplified risks(perceived risk and organizational complexity risk),a risk warning index system for high-altitude railway tunnel construction is constructed,consisting of six primary indicators and twenty-nine secondary indicators.The reliability of these indicators is then demonstrated.Next,the improved game theory and combination weighting method are employed to calculate the combined weights of all the indicators.By analyzing the research status of railway tunnel construction risk assessment methods at home and abroad,a two-dimensional cloud model for risk warning in high-altitude railway tunnel construction is established based on risk probability and hazard level as the base variables.MATLAB is used to draw a two-dimensional cloud graph to visually represent the risk levels,and the closeness is further calculated to determine accurate risk levels.Finally,taking the construction of the Sejila Mountain Tunnel as an example,the applicability of the improved game theory and two-dimensional cloud model in risk warning for high-altitude railway tunnel construction is validated.The research results show that the risk warning level for the Sejila Mountain Tunnel is“Level I”(high risk probability and significant hazard level).Furthermore,the analysis indicates that the management of personnel,environment,and organizational complexity needs to be strengthened,which plays an important role in preventing construction risks in high-altitude ra

关 键 词：高海拔地区 铁路隧道 风险预警 风险感知 风险放大 二维云 

分 类 号：U25[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U455[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]