昌吉州人口-土地-经济城镇化耦合协调发展分析与预测  

Analysis and forecast of coupling coordinated development of population-land-economy urbanization in Changji Prefecture

作　　者：柴婧 苏向辉[2] 马瑛[1] 杨凯栋 CHAI Jing;SU Xiang-hui;MA Ying;YANG Kai-dong(College of Public Administration(College of Law),Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;College of First-year Students,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学,公共管理学院(法学院),乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学,新生学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2025年第2期51-57,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆社科联2022年新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究课题(2022ZJFLY47);新疆农业大学2023年研究生校级科研创新计划项目(XJAUGRI2023026)。

摘　　要：基于2012—2021年面板数据,构建人口-土地-经济城镇化系统综合评价指标体系,选取熵值法、耦合协调度模型和GM(1,1)灰色预测模型测算分析人口-土地-经济城镇化的综合发展水平及耦合协调发展情况,并预测2022—2024年人口-土地-经济城镇化耦合协调情况。结果表明,2012—2021年人口-土地-经济城镇化及各子系统的发展水平呈波动上升趋势,其中土地城镇化子系统发展速度最快;人口-土地-经济城镇化系统耦合水平较高,耦合度在研究期为0.816~0.964,耦合协调发展水平也由2012年的初级协调发展至2021年的良好协调;2022—2024年人口-土地-经济城镇化系统耦合协调度将呈持续上升趋势,预计在2023年实现优质协调。虽然昌吉州人口-土地-经济城镇化耦合协调良好,但迈向更高质量发展之时,现存土地利用低效、开发动力不足、产业失衡、人的城镇化重视不足等问题依然存在,建议推进土地、户籍制度改革,完善新型城镇化建设投融资体制,升级产业结构,构建城镇化功能互补体系,强化系统联动发展。Based on the panel data from 2012 to 2021,the comprehensive evaluation index system of population-land-economy ur⁃banization system was constructed.The entropy method,coupling coordination model and GM(1,1)grey model were selected to calcu⁃late and analyze the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination development of population-land-economy urbaniza⁃tion,and predict the coupling coordination of population-land-economy urbanization from 2022 to 2024.The results showed that the development level of population-land-economy urbanization and its subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2021,among which the development speed of land urbanization subsystem was the fastest.The coupling level of population-land-economy ur⁃banization system was high,and the coupling degree was 0.816~0.964 in the research period.The coupling coordinated development level of population-land-economy urbanization was also developed from the primary coordination in 2012 to the good coordination in 2021.From 2022 to 2024,the coupling coordination degree of population-land-economy urbanization system would continue to rise,and it would be expected to achieve high-quality coordination in 2023.Although the coupling coordination of population-land-econo⁃my urbanization in Changji Prefecture was well,when it would come to higher-quality development,the existing problems such as in⁃efficient land use,insufficient development power,industrial imbalance,and insufficient attention to human urbanization still existed.It was suggested to promote the reform of land and household registration system,improve the investment and financing system for new urbanization construction,upgrade the industrial structure,build a complementary system of urbanization functions,and strengthen the coordinated development of the system.

关 键 词：人口城镇化 土地城镇化 经济城镇化 耦合协调 灰色预测 昌吉州 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]