基于证据理论和熵权灰色关联的城市街区空间应急疏散效能评价  

Effectiveness Evaluation of Spatial Emergency Evacuation for Urban Blocks Based on Evidence Theory and Entropy Weight Grey Correlation

作　　者：刘晓然 曹泽坤 甄纪亮 李子 LIU Xiaoran;CAO Zekun;ZHEN Jiliang;LI Zi(School of Science,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044;The Second Operation Branch Company Affiliated with Beijing MSAA Transit Railway Operation Corp.Ltd,Beijing 100043)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学理学院,北京100044 [2]北京建筑大学土木与交通学院,北京100044 [3]北京市地铁运营有限公司运营二分公司,北京100043

出　　处：《北京建筑大学学报》2025年第1期114-122,共9页Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908025,52278472);北京市自然科学基金项目(8232004)。

摘　　要：为更好评估城市街区应急疏散效能,提出基于证据理论和熵权灰色关联法的街区疏散效能评价模型,即以街区空间应急疏散效能评价体系指标作为证据体,并采用熵权灰色关联法确定各证据体的确定信度。以石家庄中心城区的52个街区为例,进行应急疏散效能评价实证分析。研究结果表明,该方法在街区尺度疏散效能评估方面具有较强的适用性,能够为街区疏散效能提升提供易操作且可行的技术支持。In order to better evaluate the emergency evacuation effectiveness of urban blocks,a block evacuation effectiveness evaluation model is proposed based on evidence theory and entropy weight gray correlation method,that is,the indicators of block space emergency evacuation effectiveness evaluation system are used as the evidence body,and the entropy weight grey correlation method is applied to determine the determination reliability of each evidence body.Taking 52 blocks in the central urban area of Shijiazhuang as an example,an empirical analysis of emergency evacuation effectiveness evaluation is conducted.The research results show that this method is of strong applicability in the evaluation of block-scale evacuation effectiveness,and can provide easy-to-operate and feasible technical support for the improvement of block evacuation effectiveness.

关 键 词：证据理论 熵权灰色关联 街区空间 应急疏散 效能评价 

分 类 号：TU998[建筑科学—市政工程]