贵州省都匀市农区褐家鼠种群数量变化及预测  

Population changes and prediction of Rattus norvegicus in agricultural areas in Duyun City,Guizhou Province

作　　者：周朝霞 覃安荣 吴庭慧 ZHOU Zhaoxia;QIN Anrong;WU Tinghui(Planting Industry Development Center of Duyun,Duyun,Guizhou 558000,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省都匀市种植业发展中心,贵州都匀558000

出　　处：《生物灾害科学》2025年第1期113-119,共7页Biological Disaster Science

基　　金：贵州省高层次创新型人才培养项目(黔科合人才[2015]4019号);遵义市首批市级人才基地建设项目(遵委[2019]69号)。

摘　　要：【目的】为了摸清农区褐家鼠种群数量变化规律,为其预测预报及科学防控提供技术支撑。【方法】采用夹夜法,每年1—12月在住宅、稻田、旱地调查1次鼠情,对贵州省都匀市2018—2024年住宅、稻田、旱地褐家鼠种群组成及种群数量变化进行分析研究,并建立数量高峰期种群数量预测预报模型。【结果】都匀市住宅、稻田、旱地3个生境鼠类均以褐家鼠为优势种,分别占捕鼠总数的89.94%、92.53%、89.37%,7年平均捕获率为2.05%,最高年平均捕获率与最低年平均捕获率之间相差1.77倍,不同年度种群数量差异极显著;最高月捕获率与最低月捕获率之间相差6.23倍,不同月份种群数量差异极显著,在一年中,在3月和10月出现2个种群数量高峰期,平均捕获率分别为2.80%、2.52%;最高季节平均捕获率与最低季节平均捕获率之间相差1.82倍,不同季节种群数量差异极显著。建立2个数量高峰期种群数量预测模型,经回测验证,2个预测预报模型平均准确率分别为81.00%、77.09%。【结论】褐家鼠是当地监测和防治的主要对象,每年3月和10月是当地农区褐家鼠防治的关键时期,春季、秋季是当地农区褐家鼠防治的关键季节。采用1月、6月捕获率作为预测指标,预测数量高峰3月、10月种群数量具有一定的可行性,可提前2月和4月预测数量高峰期种群数量。[Objective]This study was conducted to find out the change law of Rattus norvegicus population in agricultural areas,and provide technical support for its prediction and scientific prevention and control.[Method]The rat situation was investigated in houses,rice fields and dry land once a year from January to December by the night trapping method.The population composition and population changes of R.norvegicus in Duyun City from 2018 to 2024 were analyzed,and a quantitative peak population forecasting model was established.[Result]R.norvegicus was the dominant species in residential,paddy and dry land habitats in Duyun City,accounting for 89.94%,92.53%and 89.37%of the total number of rodents,respectively.The average capture rate in 7 years was 2.05%,and the difference between the highest average annual catch rate and the lowest average annual catch rate was 1.77 times.The difference between the highest monthly catch rate and the lowest monthly catch rate was 6.23 times,and the difference in population number in different months was extremely significant.In a year,there were two population peaks in March and October,with average catch rates of 2.80%and 2.52%,respectively.The difference between the highest average seasonal capture rate and the lowest average seasonal capture rate was 1.82 times,and the population number in different seasons was very significant.Two quantitative peak population forecasting models were established,and the average accuracy of the two forecasting models was 81.00%and 77.09%,respectively.[Conclusion]R.norvegicus is the main target of local monitoring and control.March and October are the key periods for the control of R.norvegicus in local agricultural areas,and spring and autumn are the key seasons for the control of R.norvegicus in local agricultural areas.It is feasible to predict the population in March and October with the capture rate in January and June as the prediction index,and the population in February and April can be predicted in advance.

关 键 词：褐家鼠 种群组成 种群数量 变化规律 预测模型 防治时期 

分 类 号：Q958.1[生物学—动物学] S443[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]