基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价  

Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Green and Low-carbon Farmhouses in Western Inner Mongolia Based on Random Forest Algorithm

作　　者：金国辉[1,2] 史雅婕 史智婕 张凯歌 JIN Guo-hui;SHI Ya-jie;SHI Zhi-jie;ZHANG Kai-ge(School of Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;Intelligent Construction and Operation Engineering Research Center at Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;School of Computer and Artificial Intelligence,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学土木工程学院,包头014010 [2]内蒙古科技大学内蒙古自治区高校智能建造与运维工程研究中心,包头014010 [3]辽宁师范大学计算机与人工智能学院,大连116000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2025年第8期3340-3348,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51768053);内蒙古自然科学基金(2019MS05007,2022MS05005)。

摘　　要：为推进内蒙古西部农村地区绿色低碳高质量发展,结合走访调查、文献收集的数据,通过DeST和Trnsys软件联合模拟农宅能耗,进行单因素分析,利用正交试验法获得多组方案,采用基于随机森林算法的灰色模糊综合评价法对围护结构、采暖系统等方面进行综合优化研究,选出最适合内蒙古西部的绿色低碳农宅方案。结果表明:内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅最优方案具体为:建筑朝向坐北朝南、层高3.4 m、地面为20 mm聚苯乙烯挤塑保温板(XPS)瓷砖地面、屋面为120 mm膨胀型聚苯乙烯泡沫保温板(EPS)倒置式混凝土砌块屋面、外墙为160 mm聚苯乙烯挤塑保温板(XPS)外墙外保温混凝土砌块墙、外窗为6C+12Ar+6C的6 mm双层普通玻璃惰性气体塑钢窗、南向窗墙比0.5、北向窗墙比0.5、阳光间进深1.2 m、阳光间材质为6C+12Ar+6C的6 mm双层惰性气体普通玻璃+塑钢窗框+保温窗帘、风能发电效率45%。最优方案的采暖能耗为2661.15 kW·h,室内最冷日平均温度为11.62℃,碳排放减少量为10.02 t/a,太阳能得热量为67702.75 kW,净现值>0,经济性良好,在内蒙古西部农村地区具有一定的推广性,为内蒙古西部农宅绿色低碳转型提供了发展方向。In order to promote the green,low-carbon and high-quality development of rural areas in western Inner Mongolia,the data collected from the survey and literature was combined,the energy consumption of farmhouses was jointly simulated through DeST and Trnsys software,single factor analysis was carried out,the orthogonal test method was used to obtain multiple schemes,and the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on random forest algorithm was used to comprehensively optimize the enclosure structure and heating system,and selected the most suitable green and low-carbon farmhouse scheme in western Inner Mongolia.The results show that the optimal scheme of green and low-carbon farmhouses in western Inner Mongolia is as follows:the building is facing north and south,the floor height is 3.4 m,the ground is 20 mm polystyrene extruded polystyrene board(XPS)thermal insulation tile floor,the roof is 120 mm expanded polystyrene foam board(EPS)insulation board inverted concrete block roof,the external wall is 160 mm polystyrene extruded polystyrene board(XPS)insulation board external insulation concrete block wall,the external window is 6C+12Ar+6C 6 mm double-layer ordinary glass inert gas plastic steel window,the south-facing window-to-wall ratio is 0.5,the north-facing window-to-wall ratio is 0.5,and the sunlight depth is 1.2 m.The material of the sunshine room is 6C+12Ar+6C 6 mm double-layer inert gas ordinary glass+plastic steel window frame+thermal insulation curtains,and the wind power generation efficiency is 45%.The heating energy consumption of the optimal scheme is 2661.15 kW·h,the average indoor temperature on the coldest day is 11.62℃,the carbon emission reduction is 10.02 t/a,the solar heat gain is 67702.75 kW,and the net present value>0,which is economical and has a certain degree of popularization in the rural areas of western Inner Mongolia,providing a development direction for the green and low-carbon transformation of rural houses in western Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：绿色低碳农宅 DeST和Trnsys 随机森林算法 灰色模糊综合评价 绿色低碳转型 

分 类 号：TU241.4[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]