社会流动对生育意愿的影响机制:消费升级的中介效应考察  

Mechanism of Social Mobility on Fertility Intention:An Examination of the Mediating Effect of Consumption Upgrading

作　　者：贾洪波[1] 农静雅 JIA Hongbo;NONG Jingya(School of Public Administration,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学公共管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《管理学刊》2025年第1期48-62,共15页Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074016);国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD077)。

摘　　要：中国人口生育意愿持续走低。本文从消费的升级效应和棘轮效应视角构建社会流动影响生育意愿的模型以对低生育意愿做出理论解释。在此基础上,基于中国家庭追踪调查2010年和2018年的数据,运用泊松模型和中介模型从代际和代内社会流动双视角实证检验社会流动对生育意愿的影响。研究发现:社会流动显著影响子代的期望子女数,代际向上流动以及代内向上流动群体的期望子女数更少。用家庭人均消费支出衡量消费升级时,无论代际还是代内社会流动,发生社会流动(向下或向上)群体的期望子女数更少;用生存性消费衡量消费升级时,发生代内向上社会流动群体的期望子女数更少;用发展性消费衡量消费升级时,发生代内社会流动(向下或向上)群体的期望子女数更少。16~49岁群体代际向上流动时,其生育意愿显著下降。49岁以上、大学学历以下和乡村群体代内向上流动时,其生育意愿显著下降。由此,提出中国应该创造生育友好型社会来尽可能提高生育意愿。Chinese fertility intentions have been sustained at a low level.This paper constructs a model of social mobility affecting fertility intention from the perspectives of consumption’s upgrading effect and the ratchet effect to provide a theoretical explanation for low fertility intention.On this basis,the impact of social mobility on fertility intention is empirically examined from the dual perspectives of intergenerational and intragenerational social mobility using the Poisson and Mediation model,based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2010 and 2018.The study found that social mobility significantly affects the number of children desired by the offspring,with the intergenerational upward mobility and intragenerational upward mobility groups having fewer desired children.Using per capita household consumption expenditure to measure consumption upgrading,the number of desired children is lower for the group experiencing social mobility(downward or upward)regardless of intergenerational or intragenerational social mobility.Using survivable consumption expenditure to measure consumption upgrading,the number of desired children is lower for the group experiencing intragenerational upward social mobility.Using developmental consumption to measure consumption upgrading,the number of desired children is lower for the group experiencing intragenerational social mobility(downward or upward).When intergenerational upward mobility occurred in the 16-49 age group,their fertility intention decreased significantly.When intragenerational upward mobility occurred in the population aged over 49,those with less than bachelor’s degree and those in rural areas,their fertility intention decreased significantly.Therefore,it is proposed that China should create a fertility-friendly society to increase fertility intention as much as possible.

关 键 词：社会流动 生育意愿 消费升级效应 消费棘轮效应 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]