大国视野下中国经济增长比较研究  

A Comparative Study of China’s Economic Growth from the Perspective of Major Powers

作　　者：伍抱一 程恩富[2] WU Baoyi;CHENG Enfu(School of Marxism,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Marxism,Univerisity of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102445,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学马克思主义学院,上海200433 [2]中国社会科学院大学马克思主义学院,北京102445

出　　处：《管理学刊》2025年第1期82-96,共15页Journal of Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21&ZD080);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题青年项目(2022EKS009)。

摘　　要：通过研究各大国经济增长情况,分析中国经济增长现实,反驳中国经济“悲观论”。研究发现,中国经济“悲观论”的结论是基于片面数据和短期波动,其忽视了中国经济的基本面和长期趋势;人民币对美元贬值和美国高通胀是中国经济相对规模近年出现短期异动的主要原因,并且这种异动只是对长期上升趋势的短暂偏离;中国加速追赶发达国家发展水平的态势没有改变,世界经济格局“中升美降”“南升北降”的基本趋势没有改变。为了应对这种短期异动和促进经济高质量发展,中国应该在充分发挥基本经济制度作用的同时,利用经济规模庞大且层次丰富的独特优势,始终保持高于发达国家实际增长率的发展趋势。Through studying the economic growth of major countries,this paper analyzes the reality of China’s economic growth and refutes the pessimistic view and peak view of China’s economy.The study finds,the conclusion of the pessimistic view of China’s economy is based on one-sided data and short-term fluctuations,ignoring the fundamental aspects and longterm trends of China’s economy;the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the high inflation in the United States are the main reasons for the short-term anomalies in the relative scale of China’s economy in recent years,and the anomalies are just a brief deviation from the long-term upward trend;moreover,the trend of China accelerating to catch up with the development level of developed countries has not changed,and the basic trend of the world economic pattern,which shows that China is rising and the US is declining and the south is rising and the north,is declining has not changed.To cope with these short-term anomalies and promote high-quality economic development,China should fully utilize the role of the basic economic system and take advantage of the unique advantages of its large and diverse economic scale,and always maintain a development trend that is the actual growth rate in China higher than that of developed countries.

关 键 词：中国经济增长 美国经济增长 国际货币 世界经济格局 新发展理念 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]