逆周期调节背景下提升赤字率的思路与作用  

Research On Raising the Fiscal Deficit Rate in the Context of Counter-Cyclical Adjustment

作　　者：贾根良[1] 何增平 Jia Genliang;He Zengping

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,北京100872 [2]北京理工大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《广东社会科学》2025年第2期27-37,285,286,共13页Social Sciences in Guangdong

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国式现代化进程中实现高质量充分就业研究”(项目号23JZD012)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：“3%财政赤字率红线”形成的历史过程表明了其虚构的本质。由于中国目前超常规逆周期调节将需要数年甚至更长时间,不应将突破“3%财政赤字率红线”视作一时之举。为了促使人们放弃“3%财政赤字率红线”的固化思维,应澄清其将国家预算类比为家庭预算及相关问题的认识误区。提高“财政赤字率”在中国目前超常规逆周期调节中具有四种关键性作用,能为中央提高目标财政赤字率的决策提供理论根据。事实上,提出财政可持续性应以实际经济资源而非财政赤字率高低来决定。打破3%财政赤字率红线的固化思维,有助于解决中国当前因外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深、国内需求不足、部分企业生产经营困难、群众就业增收面临压力、风险隐患仍然较多等问题。The history of formation of 3% fiscal deficit rate red line shows its nature as an illusion.Through international comparisons,given that China’s counter-cyclical adjustment will take several years or even longer,and therefore the breaking of 3% fiscal deficit rate red line should not be regarded as a temporary move.In order to urge people to completely abandon the 3% fiscal deficit rate red line,it is necessary to analyze the false analogy between public finance and family budget and its related misunderstanding.By analyzing the four key roles of raising the“fiscal deficit ratio”in China’s extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment,provides a theoretical basis for the central government’s decision to raise its target fiscal deficit rate,and discusses why the concept of fiscal sustainability should be defined in terms of real economic resources rather than in terms of fiscal deficit rates.Breaking the entrenched thinking of 3% deficit rate red line helps to deeply understand the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2024,that is,raising the fiscal deficit rate is a fundamental measure to solve the problems of adverse impacts brought about by changes in the external environment,insufficient domestic demand,operational difficulties in some enterprises,pressures on people’s employment and income growth,and many hidden risks.

关 键 词：“3%财政赤字率红线” 超常规逆周期调节 主权货币 财政可持续性 财政金融风险 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]