青海省露蕊乌头的分布与危害区预测  

Distribution and prediction of hazard area of Aconitum gymnandrum in Qinghai Province

作　　者：赵啟军 牟丹[1] 拉巴才仁 才吉 拉毛央尕 吴笑天 刘玉英 谢久祥[1] ZHAO Qi-jun;MOU Dan;Labacairen;CAI Ji;Lamaoyangga;WU Xiao-tian;LIU Yu-ying;XIE Jiu-xiang(Qinghai University,Xining810016,China;Forestry and Grassland Service Center of Nangqian County,Nangqian815200,China;Forest and Grass Service Center of Yushu City,Yushu815000,China;Qinghai Provin-cial Institute of Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey and Monitoring,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学,青海西宁810016 [2]囊谦县林业和草原综合服务中心,青海囊谦815200 [3]玉树市林业和草原综合服务中心,青海玉树815000 [4]青海省自然资源综合调查监测院,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《草原与草坪》2025年第1期161-172,共12页Grassland and Turf

基　　金：青海省“昆仑英才·高端创新创业人才”项目[青人才字(2023)1号];青海省国土变更调查与检测项目[包十,青海璇锴公招(服务)2024-017-1];青海大学2023年度青年科研基金[2023-QNY-5]。

摘　　要：【目的】了解青海省主要毒杂草露蕊乌头的分布、危害区及影响因子。【方法】用MaxEnt3.4.4模型,预测不同气候情景下青海省露蕊乌头的潜在分布区。【结果】使用MaxEnt3.4.4模型分别在当前、SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585气候情景下的模拟精度值均大于0.9,处于“极好”的水平,可信度高;根据模型预测结果将青海省露蕊乌头潜在分布区划分为4个适生等级,其中总危害区面积3.80×10^(5) hm^(2)、高危害区面积2.83×10^(4) km^(2)、中危害区面积6.23×10^(4) km^(2)、低危害区面积1.50×10^(5) km^(2)、非危害区面积4.60×10^(5) km^(2)。高危害区主要分布于青海省南部玉树州南部,海北州门源县、祁连县,西宁市大通县等地区。运用刀切法计算各个环境变量对物种分布的影响,发现年降水量(Bio12)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、月太阳辐射(Srad)、最湿季降水量(Bio16),是影响露蕊乌头分布的主要因素,其影响机制可能与露蕊乌头的传粉生态学有关。【结论】未来气候情景下,青海省露蕊乌头的分布呈现收缩趋势,在2030sSSP126、SSP245气候情境下露蕊乌头危害区收缩趋势更为明显,并且有向东南部迁移的趋势。【Objective】Understanding the distribution of the poisonous weed Aconitum gymnandrum in Qinghai Province,its harmful areasand the influencing factors is significant for ecological construction and sustainable develop⁃ment of animal husbandry in the region.【Method】The MaxEnt 3.4.4 model was usedin this study to predict the po⁃tential distribution areas of Aconitum gymnandrum under different climate scenarios.【Result】The results indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt 3.4.4 model under current and future climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)exceeded 0.9,demonstrating excellent reliability.Based on the model’s predictions,the potential distribution areas of Aconitum gymnandrum in Qinghai Province were categorized into four suitability lev⁃els.The total area of the affected regions was approximately 37.99×10^(4) hm^(2),with high⁃risk areas covering 2.83×10^(4) km^(2),medium⁃risk areas 6.23×10^(4) km^(2),and low⁃risk areas 144,600 km^(2) and non-hazardous areas 46.15×10^(4) km^(2).High⁃risk areas were primarily located in the southern part of Yushu Prefecture,Menyuan and Qilian counties in Haibei Prefecture,and Datong County in Xining City.The Jackknife test was employed to assess the influence of vari⁃ous environmental variables on the species distribution,identifying annual precipitation(bio12),normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),monthly solar radiation(Srad),and precipitation of wettest quarter(bio16)as the main factors affecting the distribution of Aconitum gymnandrum,possibly related to its pollination ecology.【Conclusion】Under future climate scenarios,the distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in Qinghai Province showed a contraction trend,particularly noticeable under the 2030 s SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios,with a tendency to shift towards the southeast.

关 键 词：青海省 毒害草 分布区 传粉 预测 

分 类 号：S567[农业科学—中草药栽培]