基于Maxent模型的河西走廊骆驼蓬潜在适生区研究  

Study of potential suitable areas for Peganum harmala in the Hexi Corridor

作　　者：余涛 董瑞 甘瑞勋 刘新 唐庄生 楚彬[1] 花立民[1] 郝媛媛 YU Tao;DONG Rui;GAN Rui-xun;Liu Xin;TANG Zhuang-sheng;CHU Bin;HUA Li-min;HAO Yuan-yuan(Pratacultural College of Gansu Agricultural University,Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem,Ministry of Education,Engineering and Technology Research Center for Alpine Rodent Pest Control,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学草业学院,草业生态系统教育部重点实验室,国家林业草原高寒草地鼠害防控工程技术研究中心,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《草原与草坪》2025年第1期182-189,共8页Grassland and Turf

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41907406,32160338);甘肃省教育厅重大培育项目(2024CXPT-07);甘肃省教育厅优秀研究生“创新之星”项目(2023CXZX-625);草业生态系统教育部重点实验室揭榜挂帅项目(KLGE-2024-06);国家林业和草原局草地啮齿动物危害防控创新团队资助。

摘　　要：【目的】了解骆驼蓬(Peganum harmala)分布及影响其分布的主要环境因子对科学防控和合理利用骆驼蓬具有重要意义。【方法】基于MaxEnt模型,结合分布点数据和16个生态因子数据探讨了影响河西走廊骆驼蓬分布的主导生态因子及未来适生区变化。【结果】影响骆驼蓬分布的主导生态因子是人类足迹、最湿月降水量、海拔、坡度和土壤有效水含量。河西走廊骆驼蓬主要分布在古浪县、凉州区、永昌县、山丹县、甘州区、民乐县、临泽县、民勤县、高台县和肃州区等。2030年和2050年适生区面积增长幅度最大的气候情景模式分别为SSP245和SSP126。【结论】人类足迹和最湿月降水量是影响河西走廊骆驼蓬分布的主导生态因子;分布区主要在中东部地区;未来不同气候情景下,骆驼蓬适生区会向高纬度地区扩张。【Objective】Understanding the distribution of Peganum harmala and the main environmental factors affecting its distribution is of great significance for the scientific prevention and control and rational utilization of P.harmala.【Method】Based on MaxEnt model,combined with distribution point data and 16 ecological factors,the dominant ecological factors affecting the distribution of P.harmala in Hexi Corridor and the changes of future in suit⁃able habitats were explored.【Result】The dominant ecological factors that affect the distribution of P.harmala were human footprint,wettest month rainfall,altitude,slope and soil effective water content.The P.harmala of the Hexi Corridor are mainly distributed in Gulang County,Liangzhou District,Yongchang County,Shandan County,Ganzhou District,Minle County,Linze County,Minqin County,Gaotai County and Suzhou District.The climate scenario mod⁃els with the largest increases in suitable habitat area in 2030 and 2050 were SSP245 and SSP126,respectively.【Con⁃clusion】Human footprint and wettest month rainfall were the dominant ecological factors affecting the distribution of P.harmala in Hexi Corridor.The distribution area was mainly in the central and eastern regions;In the future,under different climatic scenarios,the suitable area of P.harmala would expand to high latitudes.

关 键 词：骆驼蓬 MaxEnt模型 生态因子 适生区 分布特征 河西走廊 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]