中国省域数字经济与人口发展的时空耦合及其驱动因素  

space-time coupling between digital economy and population development at the provincial level in china and its driving factors

作　　者：许淑婷[1] 代智彬 XU Shuting;DAI Zhibin(School of Geographical Sciences,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《辽宁师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期57-67,共11页Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助重点项目(L22AJY010)。

摘　　要：为了探求中国数字经济与人口协调发展的时空特征及其路径,选取多维度指标构建数字经济和人口的指标评价体系,运用熵值法计算中国30个省份数字经济和人口的发展水平,并利用耦合协调模型研究数字经济与人口的耦合协调类型及其发展特点,在此基础上通过Dagum基尼系数分析其区域差异,并运用地理探测器对数字经济与人口耦合协调的驱动因素进行探究.结果表明:①根据数字经济与人口的耦合协调度将各省份分类,13个为拮抗耦合型,1个为磨合耦合型,4个为低水平耦合型,1个为高水平耦合型,大多数省份耦合协调度中速增长且较少出现波动;②中国各省份耦合协调度总体差异缩小,西部地区内部差异减小但东部和中部地区增大,东中地区间差异增大、西部与东部和中部地区间差异减小;③数字经济与人口的耦合协调主要是数字产业发展、科研能力提升、教育水平提高、国民经济推动和政府政策等因素综合作用的结果.To explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and pathways of coordinated development between China's digital economy and population,selected multi-dimensional indicators to construct an evaluation index system for digital economy and population,utilized the entropy method to calculate the development level of the digital economy and population in 30 provinces of China,and employed the coupling coordination model to study the types and characteristics of coupling coordination between the digital economy and population.Based on this,analyzed regional disparities through the Dagum Gini coefficient and used geographical detectors to explore the driving factors of coupling coordination between the digital economy and population.The results indicate:①Provinces are classified based on the coupling coordination degree between the digital economy and population.Thirteen provinces exhibit antagonistic coupling,twelve provinces show coordinated coupling,four provinces have low-level coupling,and one province demonstrates high-level coupling.Most provinces experience moderate growth in coupling coordination with few fluctuations.②Overall disparities in coupling coordination among provinces in China have narrowed.Decreased internal disparities within the western region but increased in the eastern and central regions.Disparities between the eastern and central regions have widened,while those between the western region and the central or eastern regions have reduced.③The coupling coordination between the digital economy and population is primarily driven by of the comprehensive effects of factors such as the development of digital industries,enhancement of research capabilities,improvement of education levels,promotion of the national economy,and government policies.

关 键 词：数字经济与人口 耦合协调发展 地理探测器 区域差异 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] C924.72[社会学—人口学]