基于混合概率模型的飞机操纵系统故障风险评估  

Research on aircraft control system fault risk assessment based on hybrid probability models

作　　者：时统宇 高艺 王岩韬[1] SHI Tongyu;GAO Yi;WANG Yantao(National Key Laboratory of ATM Operation Safety Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2025年第2期10-20,共11页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2022YFC3002502);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122025038)。

摘　　要：针对飞机操纵系统故障引发的飞行安全风险问题,提出一种基于改进风险优先数(IRPN)的故障风险评估复合框架。该框架综合考虑故障概率、严重程度、检测度和风险阻尼4个关键风险因素。首先,利用失效模式影响与分析(FMECA)和故障树分析(FTA)方法双向推导系统的故障模式;其次考虑人和环境因素,使用贝叶斯网络(BN)法构建混合概率模型以计算故障概率;再次将故障严重程度划分为3个评价特征参数,并通过层次分析法(AHP)与模糊综合评价法对故障严重程度进行综合评估,然后借助飞行员快速参考手册、飞机机型设计手册等,通过准则-推理法制定可检测度的评分准则,较为科学地评估故障模式的所属可检测等级;最后引入功能共振分析法(FRAM)设置风险阻尼系数来表征故障风险演化时的风险传播情况,并以飞机襟缝翼作动系统卡阻故障模式案例进行计算验证。研究结果表明:该故障模式的IRPN评估结果为158,与实际运行情况完全吻合。通过故障模式的范例模拟和不安全事件真实验证,证实了IRPN复合风险评估框架计算得到的故障综合风险指数的有效性和准确性。To address the flight safety risks posed by faults in aircraft control systems,a composite framework for fault risk assessment based on IRPN was proposed.This framework comprehensively considered four key risk factors:fault probability,severity,detectability,and risk damping.First,system fault modes were deduced bidirectionally using FMECA-FTA method.Second,human and environmental factors were incorporated,and a Bayesian network approach was employed to construct a hybrid probability model for calculating fault probabilities.Third,fault severity was categorized into three evaluation parameters,which were comprehensively assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation methods.Next,utilizing resources such as pilot quick reference manuals and aircraft type design manuals,a criterion-based reasoning method was applied to establish detectability scoring criteria,allowing for a more scientific evaluation of fault mode detectability levels.Finally,the FRAM was introduced to define risk damping coefficients,characterizing the propagation of risk during the evolution of fault risks.The computational validation was carried out with the case of jamming failure mode of aircraft flap seam wing actuation system.The research results show that its IRPN assessment result is 158,which is in perfect agreement with the actual operation.The validity and accuracy of the failure composite risk index calculated by the IRPN composite risk assessment framework are confirmed by the failure mode example simulation and the real verification of unsafe events.

关 键 词：飞机操纵系统 故障风险评估 混合概率模型 改进风险优先数(IRPN) 失效模式影响与分析(FMECA)-故障树分析(FTA) 功能共振分析法(FRAM) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]