基于序关系分析法的大型综合体火灾风险评估  

Fire risk assessment of large complex based on order relation analysis method

作　　者：孙斌 李浩 毛占利 柏子聪 刘彦谦 SUN Bin;LI Hao;MAO Zhanli;BAI Zicong;LIU Yanqian(School of Fire Protection Engineering,China People's Police University,Langfang Hebei 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学防火工程学院,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2025年第2期81-88,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金资助(G2021507001);中国人民警察大学重点专项课题(ZDZX202401)。

摘　　要：为准确识别和评估城市中大型综合体的火灾风险,从建筑防火、消防设施、电气防火、消防安全管理、应急处置与联动、消防技术服务6个维度构建包含32个二级指标的火灾风险评估指标体系;采用序关系分析法获得各指标的主观权重,引用熵权法确定各指标的客观权重,基于博弈论组合赋权法确定各指标的组合权重,并应用云模型理论量化分析某市大型综合体的火灾风险。结果表明:该模型不仅能够避免指标权重的主观局限性,还能考虑评估过程中的模糊性和随机性;该大型综合体的主要风险来自于消防技术服务和应急处置与联动,需采取相应的措施防患于未然;评价结果与实际情况相符,验证了该模型在大型综合体火灾风险评估的可行性。To accurately identify and evaluate the fire risk in large-scale urban complexes,a fire risk assessment indicators system was constructed,consisting of 32 secondary indicators across six dimensions:building fire protection,fire protection facilities,electrical fire prevention,fire safety management,emergency response and coordination,and fire protection technical services.The order relation method was employed to determine the subjective weights of each indicator,while the entropy weight method was used to calculate the objective weights.Subsequently,a game-theory-based combined weighting approach was utilized to derive integrated weights,and a cloud model was applied to quantitatively analyze the fire risk of a large complex in a specific city.The results demonstrate that this combining model not only mitigates the subjectivity limitations in indicator weighting but also accounts for the fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation process.The primary risks of the large complex stem from fire protection technical services as well as emergency response and coordination,requiring preventive measures.Furthermore,the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,validating the feasibility of the proposed model in assessing fire risks for large-scale urban complexes.

关 键 词：大型综合体 火灾风险评估 序关系 熵权法 云图 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]