基于蒙特卡罗法的立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制  

Buckling failure mechanism of vertical cylindrical tank shell based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：潘科[1] 牛颖承 PAN Ke;NIU Yingcheng(Department of Safety Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian Liaoning 116028,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学安全工程系,辽宁大连116028 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2025年第2期89-94,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：中国职业安全健康协会创新项目(CXCY-2021-18)。

摘　　要：为了降低飓风作用下沿海地区石油化工储罐的失效风险,基于强度-应力干涉理论,建立立式圆柱形储罐在风载荷作用下的静态失效模型,通过某原油储罐实例确定其屈曲失效的临界风速,并针对风速等参数不同随机分布情况,应用蒙特卡罗法进一步绘制壳体屈曲失效概率曲线,探究其静态条件下的屈曲失效机制,并确定不同装量水平下的失效概率。结果表明:针对立式圆柱形储罐,在相同风载荷作用下,装量水平为25%、50%、75%时,导致储罐壳体屈曲失效的临界风速分别为60.67、65.38、69.79 m/s;根据屈曲失效概率曲线,储罐装量水平对储罐抵抗风载荷的影响较大,装量水平为25%的失效概率远大于装量水平为50%的失效概率。因此,立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制为:装量水平过低,在风载荷作用下易导致储罐发生壳体屈曲失效,装量水平越高立式圆柱形储罐可抵抗风载荷的能力越强。沿海等化工企业可以采取适当增加装量水平等保护措施以抵抗强风载荷。In order to reduce the failure risk of petrochemical storage tanks in coastal areas under the influence of hurricanes,the failure model for vertical cylindrical tanks under wind load was established based on the strength stress interference theory.The critical wind speed for the buckling failure was determined by an example of a crude oil storage tank.For different random distributions of parameters,such as wind speed,the Monte Carlo method was also used to plot the probability curve of shell buckling failure.The buckling failure mechanism under static conditions was investigated,and the failure probability at different loading levels was determined under static conditions.The results show that the critical wind speeds are 60.67,65.38 and 69.79 m/s respectively when the loading levels are 25%,50%and 75%under the same wind load.According to the failure probability curve,the failure probability of the loading level of 25%is significant greater than that at 50%.Therefore,it can be seen that the buckling failure mechanism of the vertical cylindrical storage tank shell is as follows:the loading level is too low,which can easily lead to buckling failure of the storage tank under wind load.The higher the loading level,and the stronger the wind load resistance of the vertical cylindrical storage tank.Appropriate measures can be taken to increase the loading level to resist strong wind loads in the coastal chemical industries.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗法 风载荷 立式圆柱形储罐 储罐壳体 屈曲失效 临界风速 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]