基于MaxEnt模型的云南香料烟气候适生区  

Climate Suitable Area of Spice Tobacco in Yunnan Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：李含文 张云贵[2] 李光西 李志宏[2] 甄安忠 刘青丽[2] 唐旭兵 王鹏[1] LI Hanwen;ZHANG Yungui;LI Guangxi;LI Zhihong;ZHEN Anzhong;LIU Qingli;TANG Xubing;WANG Peng(College of Agriculture,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163319,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Yunnan Spice Tobacco Co.,Ltd.,Baoshan 678000,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学农学院,黑龙江大庆163319 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [3]云南香料烟有限责任公司,云南保山678000

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期111-117,共7页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University:Natural Science

基　　金：中国烟草总公司云南省公司基金项目(2022530000241032)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究香料烟在云南的气候适生区,为其合理种植提供理论依据。【方法】使用ArcGIS将气候数据结合地形校正进行协同克里金插值,利用最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型筛选影响香料烟分布的气象因子,最后使用ArcGIS对云南省香料烟的气候适生区进行评价。【结果】MaxEnt模型的曲线下面积(the area under curve,AUC)值为0.993,可精准预测云南省香料烟的气候适生区。影响香料烟在云南省分布的气象因子为2月降雨量、1月日照时间、3月日照时间、3月平均气温、3月降雨量、4月降雨量、1月降雨量、2月日照时间和4月最高气温。香料烟在云南省的最适宜种植区(四级适生区)主要分布在保山、德宏和临沧;适宜种植区(三级适生区)主要分布在保山、德宏、临沧、玉溪、楚雄和大理。MaxEnt模型预测结果与香料烟种植区拟合度较高,其种植区主要分布在四级和三级适生区,极少数分布在二级和一级适生区。【结论】云南省适合种植香料烟的地区主要在西南部,适宜种植区主要为沿怒江、澜沧江、黑惠江及其支流的干热河谷地区。2月降雨量、1月日照时间、3月日照时间和3月平均气温是影响香料烟在云南种植的主要气象因子。[Purpose]To study the climate suitable area of spice tobacco in Yunnan,providing theoretical basis for the reasonable cultivation of spice tobacco.[Methods]ArcGIS was used to combine climate data with terrain correction for collaborative Kriging interpolation;maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was used to screen the meteorological factors affecting the distribution of spice to bacco;finally,ArcGIS was used to evaluate the climate suitable area of spice tobacco in Yunnan Province.[Results]The area under curve(AUC)value of MaxEnt model was 0.993,which could accurately predict the climate suitable area of spice tobacco in Yunnan Province.The meteorological factors affecting the distribution of spice tobacco in Yunnan Province were precipitation in February,sunshine duration in January,sunshine duration in March,average temperature in March,precipitation in March,precipitation in April,precipitation in January,sunshine duration in February,and the highest temperature in April.The most suitable planting area(gradeⅣsuitable area)of spice tobacco in Yunnan Province was mainly distributed in Baoshan,Dehong,and Lincang;the secondary suitable planting area(gradeⅢsuitable area)was mainly distributed in Baoshan,Dehong,Lincang,Yuxi,Chuxiong,and Dali.The predicted results of MaxEnt model had a high degree of fitting with the planting areas of spice tobacco,and the planting areas were mainly distributed in the gradeⅣand gradeⅢsuitable areas,and very few areas were distributed in gradeⅡand gradeⅠsuitable areas.[Conclusion]In Yunnan Province,the suitable areas for planting spice tobacco are mainly in southwest,and the suitable areas are mainly in the dry-hot valley areas along the Nujiang,Lancang and Heihui rivers and their tributaries.Precipitation in February,sunshine duration in January,sunshine duration in March,and average temperature in March are the main meteorological factors affecting the planting of spice tobacco in Yunnan.

关 键 词：香料烟 最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 气候 适生区 潜在分布 

分 类 号：S572.01[农业科学—烟草工业]