税收政策在产业链上的溢出效应研究:基于股票市场反应与投资决策的双重视角  

The Spillover Effect of Tax Policy upon the Industrial Chain:From Perspectives of Stock Market Reaction and Investment Decision

作　　者：刘行[1,2] 易平 LIU Hang;YI Ping(Tax Accounting Research Center,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,116025)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学会计学院,116025 [2]东北财经大学税务会计研究中心,116025

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第3期5-22,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国制度背景下企业避税指标的若干基本问题研究”(72272025)。

摘　　要：税收政策是各国政府调节经济的重要手段。本文基于股票市场反应与企业投资的双重视角,综合考察了税收政策的经济后果沿产业链对上游行业的溢出效应。借助固定资产加速折旧政策提供的研究机会,实证结果显示,在控制政策直接效应的基础上,与政策试点行业有着较强关联度的上游行业内企业,在政策宣告期间相比其他企业有着显著更高的股票累计超额回报。此外,这些企业在政策实施之后相比其他企业也有着显著更多的固定资产投资。这印证了税收政策在产业链上的溢出效应。进一步地,这种溢出效应主要发生在成长性较好、盈利能力较强以及竞争地位较高的企业。最后,拓展性检验发现,资本投资与劳动要素的互补性使得税收政策在产业链上的溢出效应同样体现在人力资本投资上。本文结论丰富了税收政策经济后果的相关学术文献,也对政策制定者和实务界更加全面而深入地认识税收改革的影响提供了启示。Tax policy is an important tool for governments to regulate economies.Existing literature has extensively discussed the implementation effects of tax policies,but the focus is mainly put on direct impact and relatively insufficient attention is paid to indirect impact,especially the impact spillover along the chain.In fact,as a special form of the social division of labor and collaboration network,the industrial chain always affects the economic activities among micro-enterprises,and it is an important channel for the transmission of risks and returns among enterprises,which is crucial for maintaining the smoothness and stability of the economic cycle.In recent years,with the rapid changes in the international political and economic situation,the industrial chain has attracted widespread attention from national leaders to grassroots-level enterprises.To expand the existing literature and present a more complete picture of the spillover effects of tax policy upon the industrial chain,we explore the spillover effects of tax policy upon the industrial chain from two complementary perspectives:stock market reaction and investment.On the one hand,the stock market synthesizes the information of enterprise stakeholders,who show their observations and judgments on the economic consequences of tax policies in stock prices.Therefore,by examining the stock market reaction,the spillover effect of tax policy on the industrial chain can be assessed more comprehensively.On the other hand,investment is one of the most important financial decisions of enterprises,and since the MM theory holds that investment plays the most central position in the determination of enterprise value,investment has been the most important and the most classic entry point of scholars when examining the economic consequences of tax policy.By examining investment decisions,it is possible to better look into the spillover effects of tax policy implementation upon the industrial chain from the specific behavior of enterprises.Taking advantage of the resea

关 键 词：税收政策 产业链 溢出效应 股票市场反应 投资 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]