新闻共现网络与房地产企业信用债风险  

News Co-occurrence Network and Real Estate Enterprises Credit Debt Risk

作　　者：方意 王一森 林好 FANG Yi;WANG Yisen;LIN Hao(Renmin University of China,100872;The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology(Guangzhou),511466)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,100872 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872 [3]香港科技大学(广州),511466

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第3期75-90,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国金融安全统计监测、预警与对策研究”(23&ZD058);北京市社会科学基金青年学术带头人项目“防范化解经济金融领域重大风险研究”(24DTR018)。

摘　　要：已发生的多起房地产债券违约与重组事件让房地产企业信用债风险成为关注的焦点。本文利用69万余条房地产企业相关的互联网新闻文本,采用文本挖掘方法构建房地产企业新闻共现网络拓扑结构,并进一步提取房地产信用债交易数据中隐含的风险溢价信息,借助前沿的网络向量自回归模型(NAR),剖析房地产企业信用债风险的网络外溢效应。结果表明,房地产企业新闻共现网络拓扑结构在全球金融危机前后由“大而少”向“小而多”转变,关联性明显增强;房地产企业信用债风险存在直接溢出效应,其他房地产企业信贷融资减少也会间接增加房地产企业信用债风险,且这种效应对信用评级低、现金持有低、商业信用需求高但商业信用供给低的房企更加显著。研究还发现,“金融十六条”“新五条”等稳融资的监管政策改革会显著降低风险外溢。Real estate holds a critical position in the national economy in China.The traditional business model of real estate companies,characterized by high debt,high leverage,and high turnover,has showed grave drawbacks.The occurrence of debt defaults has created substantial barriers to financing for these companies,and the associated debt risks require urgent management.Since 2020,numerous real estate firms,including Evergrande and China Fortune Land Development,have experienced debt defaults.Concurrently,the market faces a contagion issue:The collapse of one company can trigger a“domino effect”,spreading the problem to others.News reports often serve as a contagion channel,amplifying and disseminating the debt risks of real estate companies,thereby shaping the psychological expectations of both the public and investors.However,due to the challenges in fully analyzing both business and non-business relational data beyond institutions and markets within traditional risk network models,there is a lack of research that explores the micro-level network contagion effects of real estate credit debt risks.This paper innovatively extracts co-occurrence indicators of real estate companies from a news corpus from the perspective of news media,and constructs a network vector autoregressive model to explore the transmission mechanism of real estate companies’credit debt risks.We also incorporate bank credit into the network model to depict the phenomenon of“banks and real estate companies”.The results indicate that the topological structure of the real estate companies’news co-occurrence network shifted from a“large but few”to a“small and many”configuration after the global financial crisis,with a notable increase in connectivity.Credit debt risks among real estate companies exhibit a direct spillover effect:A reduction in credit financing for one company indirectly raises the credit debt risks of other companies.This effect is particularly pronounced for companies with lower credit ratings,limited cash holding

关 键 词：新闻共现网络 网络向量自回归模型 房地产企业 信用债风险 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]