劳动力市场灵活性、生产率波动与工业自动化发展  

Labor Market Flexibility,Productivity Volatility and Development of Industrial Automation

作　　者：蒋为[1] 赵敏 吉萍 JIANG Wei;ZHAO Min;JI Ping(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,611130;Guangxi University,530004)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学国际商学院,611130 [2]广西大学经济学院,530004

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第3期91-109,共19页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：研究阐释党的二十届三中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大专项“促进实体经济和数字经济深度融合的理论机制与实践路径研究”(24ZDA022)。

摘　　要：本文在劳动力市场制度约束下的企业跨期要素投入生产模型中嵌入了工业机器人投入决策,探讨了工业机器人相比劳动力在生产率稳定性方面的比较优势,建立了劳动力市场灵活性与工业自动化发展之间的理论关系,分析了劳动力市场制度约束对企业技术选择的影响。基于此,本文采用跨国面板数据估计了广义双重差分模型,检验各国劳动力市场灵活性对不同行业工业自动化发展的影响。本文研究发现,在劳动力生产率波动的驱动下,一国劳动力市场灵活性不足驱动了生产率波动更大与劳动密集度更高的行业加速其工业自动化发展。本文对比了2019年劳动力市场灵活性最低和最高的国家在工业机器人投入中的行业分布,一方面,生产率波动最大和最小行业之间的工业机器人渗透率差距增大了3.85%;另一方面,劳动密集度最高和最低行业之间的工业机器人渗透率差距增大了10.47%。本文的研究结果表明,由于劳动力相比工业机器人而言在生产率上面临更大的波动性,企业在劳动力市场灵活性不足的约束下将通过工业自动化转型来缓解生产率波动所带来的产出损失。工业自动化转型已成为企业缓解本国劳动力市场制度约束的技术选择,不合理的劳动力市场制度设计将诱发过度自动化并危害就业。As industrial robots rapidly rise,the labor markets face significant challenges.Existing research primarily focuses on the substitution effect of industrial robots on labor,overlooking the comparative advantage of robots in enhancing productivity stability.Labor market regulations,traditionally designed to protect workers by raising adjustment costs,may inadvertently pressure firms to adopt automation due to the greater productivity stability of robots.This shift towards automation could potentially worsen employment prospects for workers.In this context,this paper addresses the core question of how insufficient labor market flexibility affects industrial automation development and how governments should optimize labor market systems in the era of artificial intelligence to protect both firms and workers.This paper embeds robot input decisions in an intertemporal factor input production model of firms under labor institutional constraints,explores the comparative advantage of industrial robots over labor in enhancing productivity stability,establishes the theoretical relationship between labor market flexibility and the development of industrial automation,and analyzes the impact of labor market institutional constraints on firms’technology choices.Based on transnational panel data from 1993 to 2019,the generalized difference-indifferences model shows that insufficient labor market flexibility significantly promotes the development of industrial automation.Driven by labor productivity fluctuations,this effect is more pronounced in industries with greater labor intensity and higher productivity volatility.This finding suggests that since labor faces greater productivity volatility compared to robots,firms will transform through industrial automation to mitigate output losses from productivity fluctuations under the constraint of inflexible labor markets.The possible marginal contributions of this paper lie in the following three aspects.First,it examines the crucial role of labor market institutional frameworks

关 键 词：劳动力市场灵活性 生产率波动 劳动密集度 调整成本 工业自动化 

分 类 号：J23[艺术—美术]