数字风险如何影响国际创业:来自全球创业观察微观数据的证据  

How Digital Risks Impact International Entrepreneurship:Evidence from GEM

作　　者：田毕飞[1] 李明 张肸 肖文正 TIAN Bifei;LI Ming;ZHANG Xi;XIAO Wenzheng(Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,430073;Wuhan University,430072)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,430073 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430073

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第3期160-176,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国企业对外直接投资的数字风险及防范研究”(24BJY101)。

摘　　要：本文运用蒂蒙斯创业过程模型和计划行为理论,基于2012—2016年71个国家(或地区)的GEM个体创业数据,从网络安全风险、数字鸿沟风险和数字监管风险三个维度构建数字风险综合评价指数,实证检验了数字风险对国际创业的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,一国数字风险对本国个体开展国际创业具有抑制作用,且在进行各种内生性处理以及稳健性检验之后,结论依旧成立。机制分析表明,数字风险主要通过减少技术资源和资金资源的获取以及抑制创业意向的形成,阻碍个体开展国际创业,而一国的经济发展水平会弱化数字风险对国际创业的负面影响。异质性分析表明,对于共建“一带一路”国家居民、低风险规避个体、男性个体、拥有创业能力个体、大型家庭规模个体、低等收入个体以及感知到创业机会个体,数字风险对国际创业的抑制作用更加明显。本文为中国应对数字风险不确定性、完善数字治理体系、实现高质量发展提供了政策启示。It’s proposed to achieve high-quality and full employment,and to optimize the policy environment for promoting employment through entrepreneurship.However,digital risks bring significant uncertainties and threats,which is particularly prominent in international business.Digital risks affect individual international entrepreneurial behavior in multiple ways,warning governments and potential international entrepreneurs to prioritize digital security.Extant literature on international entrepreneurship explored many aspects,but research on digital risks remains largely at the qualitative analysis stage,with few studies linking the two for analysis.Therefore,this paper measures digital risks at the national level and combines digital risks with the study of international entrepreneurship.Based on existing findings and real data,it analyzes their relationship,expands the research framework,and offers new insights for preventing digital risks and promoting international entrepreneurship.This paper adopts logical reasoning and empirical analysis to mainly study the relationship between digital risks and international entrepreneurship from the following aspects.First,based on Timmons Model of Entrepreneurial Process and Theory of Planned Behavior,this paper points out that digital risks hinder individual international entrepreneurial behavior,and elaborates on the mediating roles of technological resources,financial resources,and entrepreneurial intentions,as well as the moderating role of the level of national economic development.Second,this paper defines digital risks and constructs a measurement framework.Third,it comprehensively uses effective data to construct a mixed cross-sectional dataset and empirically tests the impact of digital risks on international entrepreneurship.Finally,it puts forward countermeasures and policy proposals accordingly.The research results indicate that digital risks exert a significant negative influence on international entrepreneurship.It shows that digital risks impede individual int

关 键 词：国际创业 数字风险 蒂蒙斯创业过程模型 计划行为理论 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]